Friday’s play at the Indian Wells Tennis Garden features a significant number of matches that are priced up to go either way, but the final match on Court 8 tonight could well offer great value for those willing to take a chance on Daniel Munoz-De La Nava in his match against Michael Llodra.
The Frenchman has never hidden his dislike for the conditions at this tournament, as the slow surface and heavy balls are the total opposite of the requirements for his attacking game. I certainly wouldn’t be backing Llodra at around 1.65 today.
In his seven years of coming to Indian Wells Llodra has won just six matches in the main draw and I wouldn’t be surprised if he chalked up his 29th career non-completion tonight. Munoz-De La Nava has been playing well on hard courts lately and already has two matches under his belt from qualifying, so he’ll be used to the way the courts are playing here.
He performed well at Delray Beach last week, beating Ryan Harrison and Xavier Malisse before losing to eventual champion Ernests Gulbis in the quarter-finals. In what will be his first ever match in the main draw at Indian Wells, the Spaniard has to have a great chance at odds of 2.18 today.
I would rate Munoz-De La Nava’s chances of winning this at around 60-65% on this surface, so the 2.18 has to represent good value.
Best bet: Back Munoz-De La Nava to beat Llodra at 2.18