Taking the positives from yesterday’s play on the ATP Tour isn’t too difficult, despite my main bet being beaten in Marseille. I managed to identify that Janko Tipsarevic and Juan Martin Del Potro would not have the easy games that their respective odds suggested and so it proved: Tipsarevic was beaten and Delpo should also have been packing his bags.
But Julien Benneteau was disappointing in his match with Jerzy Janowicz and once he’d played an awful tie break it was curtains for the Frenchman.
Quarter-finals day in Memphis kicks off with Tipsarevic’s conqueror Dmitry Tursunov taking on the man who took down Richard Gasquet – the big leftie Gilles Muller. I wouldn’t like to pick a winner in that match and there’s not a great deal of value in the 1.24 about Jo-Wilfried Tsonga over Bernard Tomic in the second match of the day either.
I would expect Tomas Berdych to come through against Janowicz, but Del Potro does tend to struggle against the defensive skills of Gilles Simon. I might be tempted to back over 22.5 total games in that one at around 2.0.
Over in Memphis there’s an opportunity to back Kei Nishikori at a nice price of around 1.85 against Marin Cilic. Their quarter-final match begins at 8pm UK time this evening.
The pair have played on four previous occasions, with the score tied at 2-2, but the Japanese player comes into this much the fresher of the two. Kei has played just two matches since the Australian Open compared with Cilic’s eight.
To put it another way the Croatian has played 23 sets to Nishikori’s four since Melbourne and both of Cilic’s matches here have been real struggles. He just scraped past Igor Sijsling 9-7 in a final set breaker yesterday.
The injury prone Nishikori seems to be managing his schedule well and when he is fit he’s tough to beat. He’s had no problems defeating two pretty poor opponents in Memphis so far this week, but those matches should have tuned him up nicely for tonight. He should get the better of a fatigued opponent in Cilic.
Best bet: Back Nishikori to beat Cilic at 1.85