The ATP World Tour moves over from Portugal and Germany to Spain, where the opening round matches of the Mutua Madrid Open continue on Monday. There are 11 ATP matches to choose from in this combined Masters 1000/Premier Mandatory event today and stars of the show on Monday include Milos Raonic, Kei Nishikori and John Isner.
The wager that I fancy takes place at around 5pm UK time. It’s the final match scheduled for Arantxa Sanchez Vicario Court between Sam Querrey and Jerzy Janowicz. It’s always worth opposing Janowicz on the clay and I’m tempted by the 2.14 which is available about a Querrey win, but the overs in this one looks highly likely to me.
Janowicz is still to record a single match win on the ATP Tour on clay in his career and other than the fact that Querrey hasn’t played for a few weeks and is making his seasonal debut on the clay today I see no reason why the Pole is a 1.68 shot to win.
Neither of these two big servers are particularly at home on the red dirt, but Querrey has certainly had the better results on clay. He’s no mug on the surface, while Jerzy is yet to prove he can cut it on clay in this sort of company.
This is their first meeting and Querrey isn’t exactly the best returner on the tour, so he may take some time to work out the Janowicz serve. But he may well come out on top in the end once he’s become used to the Pole’s big serve/big forehand/drop shot routine, which shouldn’t take too long.
The American is rusty though, and hasn’t played since that memorable Davis Cup rubber against Novak Djokovic a month ago. I can see today’s match going a long two or most likely three sets. The overs is set quite high in this at 23.5 games with two big servers involved, but I think it will take longer than that to sort these two out. At 1.96 that will be my bet today.
Best bet: Back over 23.5 games in Querrey vs. Janowicz at 1.96