It was one winner from my three wagers on Tuesday in Week 29 of the ATP World Tour in Hamburg and Bogota.
There was great misfortune when Albert Ramos held match point to land my handicap bet of -2.5 games against Horacio Zeballos, but failed to take it and instead won in two breakers, which foiled that one. Following that, Andrey Golubev wasn’t quite up to it on the day against Gael Monfils, who played pretty well.
But the day ended nicely when Alejandro Falla took advantage of the expected lacklustre effort in the altitude and humidity of Bogota by Xavier Malisse and landed a nice odds-against success.
Wednesday’s schedule sees the arrival of Roger Federer to the tournament for the first time since 2008, amidst reports that he has changed to a bigger racquet head size that he will officially debut today against Daniel Brands.
The Swiss world number five is hoping that the new racquet will give him a bit more power after some pretty poor defeats (by his standards) this season, but a new racquet takes a bit of time to adjust to and it could be interesting against Brands now.
Given that I don’t have a great deal of trust in Brands having seen him tank at home in Germany already this season I won’t be backing him, but the over 20.5 holds some appeal at 1.90.
Of the early 10am starts in Hamburg I like the idea of opposing Andreas Seppi, who has had a really poor year on the clay and faces Marcel Granollers, who beat the Italian in similar conditions in Stuttgart in their last clay meeting. Seppi is too short at 1.58 an the Spaniard is the value here for me at 2.33.
I also like opposing another Italian today in Fabio Fognini, who will surely be below par after a title winning run last week and his 4-0 head-to-head record over Ramos makes his price of 1.48 much too low considering he is likely to fatigue. Fogna is not exactly a warrior and will surely fancy an easy week, making the 2.60 on Ramos, who’s been very competitive against the Italian before, worth backing.
Similarly, Carlos Berlocq, who won last week in Bastad and had a three-setter yesterday, could be vulnerable today, but I don’t trust the flaky Martin Klizan to get the job done.
I do like opposing Jerzy Janowicz wherever I can though and today’s 1.30 is short against Robin Haase, who seems to have recovered his tie break powers after a record breaking spell of losing them.
Janowicz comes here straight from the grass of Wimbledon and Haase is capable of at least pushing the Pole today. They met on clay at the French Open when JJ won in four and Haase +3.5 games at 2.0 seems a pretty good bet with the Dutchman much more attuned to conditions here having played a three setter yesterday, while it may take JJ some time to adjust.
Back Granollers to beat Seppi at 2.33
Back Ramos to beat Fognini at 2.60
Back Haase +3.5 games to beat Janowicz at 2.0