Miami Masters Betting: Tipsarevic will be simple for Simon

Monday at the 2013 Sony Open returned one winning bet and one loser.

Andreas Seppi and Thomaz Bellucci played out the match that I predicted, with the Italian outlasting the Brazilian and winning a long one in front of a very much pro-Brazilian crowd in Key Biscayne.

The second part of my double was void as Milos Raonic withdrew from the tournament with an illness ahead of his clash with Sam Querrey, so that would have been paid out as a single.

A tepid display from Jarkko Nieminen cost me my other bet, as he failed to take advantage of Jo-Wilfried Tsonga’s early rustiness and could not make the total games mark.

Tuesday is men’s fourth round day and all eight matches are being played today at Crandon Park, with Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray headlining against Tommy Haas and Seppi respectively.

Murray should have few problems with Seppi, while Djokovic may have a slightly tougher test from Haas, but both top seeds should progress today.

One outsider with a good chance at a big price is Kei Nishikori, who faces David Ferrer and is rated a 3.60 chance to beat the Spaniard. I’d be tempted by that, but I can’t trust Kei’s physical condition, as he seems to be almost permanently injured these days.

So instead I’ll side with Gilles Simon to continue his dominance over Janko Tipsarevic in the battle of the players that the WTA love to hate. This pair of non-equal pay enthusiasts will no doubt have plenty to talk about at the net, but Simon should have the last word in the match.

Tipsy has been awful this year, blighted by niggling injuries and he should really have been beaten in straight sets by Kevin Anderson in the last round, but a highly questionable medical time out by the Serb led to Anderson’s brain melting down.

They’ve met eight times, with the Frenchman winning six of them and on this slow Miami surface I’m not sure that Tipsarevic has the power to hit past the defensive skills of Simon.

It could well be a three setter, but eventually I’d expect Simon to outlast Tipsarevic who can’t be backed with any confidence at the moment after just two wins since Melbourne.

Best Bet: Back Simon to beat Tipsarevic at 1.70

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