Monday was one of those days that the layers love to see. Every favourite went down in the main draw in Los Angeles and it was a similar story over in Kitzbuhel, as punters endured a day of tennis betting misery.
It was an awful day for me as well, with both bets going down in what was a pretty poor start to the week. The day had me pining for the green, green grass of Wimbledon and the Olympics.
But there are several attractive looking bets in which to gain a spot of revenge on Tuesday. Day two at the Farmers Classic features several contests that could well go either way and the first one that I think could prove to be an upset is in the match between Michael Berrer and Matt Ebden.
We had a good winner last week when I tipped Gilles Muller to beat Ebden in Atlanta and this is a similar scenario with Ebden taking on a big leftie. The Aussie’s record against left handers is very poor, with six losses from his last seven attempts. Added to that, Ebden has only one win over a top 100 ranked leftie in his entire career and struggles against tall players. The 6’4” Berrer could well capitalise on Ebden’s 10-25 career record against players over 6’2” in height.
They have played on one previous occasion: Berrer won on a hard court in Ebden’s home slam in Melbourne. But that was back in 2009 when the Aussie was ranked outside the top 300 so it’s not massively relevant to today’s match. All of the stats do favour Berrer though and Ebden is favourite at around 1.57 because of his higher ranking and the German’s current form, which is nothing to write home about.
This will be Berrer’s first match on a hard court since Dubai back in February when he took a set off Andy Murray. Lately he’s been playing on the clay, a surface on which he shocked Jurgen Melzer at the French Open.
Fitness has often been an issue with Berrer, but when he’s 100% he can be a handful, as wins over Melzer (twice) and Ivan Ljubicic in 2012 show. He’s also beaten Nico Almagro, Richard Gasquet and Tomas Berdych in the past.
There are a few other matches that could be worth getting involved in tonight and I’m torn between James Blake v Tobias Kamke and Michael Russell v Jesse Levine. Both are pretty much even money matches and I like the chances of Blake over Kamke, but the veteran American’s injury status is a concern after he was unable to finish off Ebden in Atlanta.
If he’s fit, Blake should be too classy for Kamke, who has failed to kick on after a promising start to his career. He also has a very poor record against top 100 players and Blake is still a force on American hard courts despite his ranking.
I also like Marinko Matosevic's chances against Chris Guccione and Ricardas Berankis over Bjorn Phau. They can be backed in a double that pays around 2.30.
Back Berrer to beat Ebden at 2.35
Back Blake to beat Kamke at 1.78
Back Berankis and Matosevic in a double at 2.30