Juan Martin Del Potro 1.6, Tomas Berdych 2.28
It was another good day on Friday at the Mutua Madrid Open. Not for the tournament, of course, but for our wallets, with Janko Tipsarevic providing the profit.
The event itself lurched further into the mire with Novak Djokovic lashing out at everyone from the tea boy up to the former head of the ATP, Adam Helfant, after his straight sets loss to compatriot Tipsarevic.
As for us, the +1.5 sets bet on Janko was successful early on and we enter semi finals Saturday in great shape.
The first of the semis promises to be a bruising encounter between the powerful pair Juan Martin Del Potro and Tomas Berdych, with the former being priced up as the favourite at around 1.6.
It could be argued that Berdych has been playing the most impressive tennis in Madrid this week, but Del Potro has been quietly going about his business and, like Berdych, has not dropped a set here yet.
Indeed, Del Potro hasn’t dropped a set in his last 10 matches and he has a good record against today’s opponent in their head-to-head series so far. Del Potro has won their last three clashes without dropping a set, including here in Madrid in 2009.
So most of the stats point to a Delpo win, but for me I’m leaning towards Berdych being the value in this one at around 2.28. The world number seven has not been broken once this week against players of the calibre of Gael Monfils, Fernando Verdasco and Kevin Anderson, and has only faced three break points in total in those games.
Del Potro, by contrast, has been broken in every match here apart from the clash with Marin Cilic, but even then the Croatian had six break point opportunities which he didn’t take.
This should be a great match to watch for the paying public in Madrid, with plenty of winners coming off both players’ strings. I’m going to take the better value on Berdych to come out on top today.
Roger Federer 1.10, Janko Tipsarevic 6.75
The second semi final sees Tipsarevic take on Roger Federer. This one should go the way of the Swiss maestro, who is closing in on the world number two ranking.
Tipsy beat an out of sorts and disgruntled Djokovic yesterday, but the Serbian hasn’t beaten Federer in four meetings.
Federer also looks to be the least troubled on this controversial surface. He, like many, isn’t a big fan of the blue clay surface, but he’s simply getting on with it. Granted, he doesn’t have to defend as much as say Nadal or Djokovic tend to do, so he’s not scrambling around on it.
There’s not much value in taking the 1.10 on a Federer win, so a better bet might turn out to be backing under the total minutes mark of 79.5 at a price of 1.87.
I can’t see there being many long rallies in this one and it should play more like a hard court match. Their 2010 Basel meeting lasted just 61 minutes for 19 games and while this might take slightly longer, it should be all over in fewer than 79.5 minutes.
Back Berdych to beat Del Potro at [2.3]
Back under 79.5 total minutes in Federer v Tipsarevic at [1.87]