Tennis Betting: Paris Masters - Wednesday's Tips


It was one winner from my two bets on Tuesday at the 2012 BNP Paribas Masters.

The day began in perfect fashion again when Jerzy Janowicz took the opening set against Marin Cilic on the tie break to bring my first bet of the day in.
The big Pole went on to record an impressive straight sets win over the Croatian, who I said yesterday was far from unbeatable as a short priced favourite and so it proved.
The resistance of Cilic did crumble a bit in the second set, but he certainly wasn’t alone in that regard as Alexandr Dolgopolov and Fernando Verdasco both put in efforts that I can only describe politely as ‘not exactly committed’.
Verdasco was particularly shameful, as he shuffled about the court for a bit before deciding that it was all too much for him. At least Dolgo was there (in body at least) for two sets.
It’s a week not to trust any short priced favourites, as one really can’t tell whether or not they can be bothered or whether they just see this as an obstacle to their winter sunshine break.
I honestly don’t think I would trust a single one of the short priced favourites on Wednesday and it’s certainly worth seriously considering some of the big outsiders.
With David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro definitely heading to London I wouldn’t fancy either of them considering that both had long weeks last week and Delpo has had two in a row heading here.
If it was someone other than Alejandro Falla playing Delpo then I might be tempted to back the 7.50 shot, but I’m not sure Falla is up to the job.
Marcel Granollers has a poor record against Ferrer, but if he’s ever going to have a shot against his Davis Cup team mate it’s today, with Ferrer surely thinking about the O2 next week. It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that the higher ranked Spaniard may let this one go to his colleague today.
Grigor Dimitrov is playing well, whereas Juan Monaco isn’t, but the Argentine has schooled the young prospect in their two career meetings so far and that match could pan out a number of different ways, which puts me off it.
Kevin Anderson has been playing well also and Richard Gasquet may have to work hard to get past the big South African today, but the home favourite has had Anderson’s measure in the past, including here 12 months ago.
Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic also make their first appearances in Bercy today against Paul-Henri Mathieu and Sam Querrey respectively and it just might be worth taking a chance that Querrey can push Nole.
They play at around lunchtime on Court Central and this may not be as easy as odds of 1.10 might suggest, with this being Nole’s first match on these Bercy courts and Querrey having the power to hit through them.
Querrey has the game to be a dangerous opponent today, but not the brain, unfortunately for the American, although he really should push Djokovic past the 19.5 total games mark.
I’m yet to be convinced that any of the top stars want to be here this week and it will be interesting to see what happens in this match, but it should go past the overs unless Querrey gives up.
The match that follows should also go long and that is the clash between John Isner and Michael Llodra.
Llodra would prefer it to be considerably quicker here this week, but he definitely has a shot against Isner, who has little motivation and whose performances away from America are generally poor.
The exception was here last year when he made the semi finals and this surface gives him time to tee off on his big forehand and of course his serve is effective on any surface.
Isner's last six best of three set matches in a row, stretching back to before the US Open, have gone to a decider because of his poor returning and when he played Llodra here in 2010 – admittedly on a quicker surface – he failed to create a single break point.
The value lies with Llodra on the outright betting, but it looks likely that it will go past even a high 24.5 total games mark at 1.76.
Best BetsBack over 19.5 games in Querrey vs Djokovic at 1.75; Back over 24.5 games in Isner vs Llodra at 1.76.