Week 42 on the ATP World Tour 2012 ended very successfully in Stockholm, Vienna and Moscow, with another clean sweep of winners on Sunday.
In Moscow, the final between Andreas Seppi and Thomaz Bellucci went comfortably past the total games mark for our first winning bet of the day, before Grega Zemlja just did enough to take the Vienna final against Juan Martin Del Potro over the 20.5 games mark for another good result. Finally, the Stockholm final proved to be a nice payout as well, as Tomas Berdych defeated Jo-Wilfried Tsonga by the required margin of two sets to one to earn a 4.10 winner and a fine end to a good week of indoor tennis.
The tour reaches the penultimate week of the main season in week 43, with two indoor ATP 500 events in Valencia and Basel. There are ten matches in total across both venues to have bets on today. The first match on the schedule in Valencia at 12pm UK time could see a potential upset, as Pablo Andujar is a tempting price in his home town to beat Belgian wonder boy David Goffin.
Andujar has been in a bit of a rut since losing in five sets to Feli Lopez in New York and is suffering a bit with confidence, as he showed when choking away a big lead against Jurgen Melzer in Beijing. But back home in Valencia he should be a match for Goffin. The Belgian has won just one completed match in the main draw of any indoor hard court event at tour level in his career and has been largely disappointing since his eye-catching run in the French Open in the summer.
Andujar defeated Goffin in straight sets on clay in Barcelona earlier this year and these Valencia courts will be once again on the slow side, which should make for a decent match between the pair. I would have priced this up a lot closer and there’s certainly some value in taking a punt on the Spaniard at 2.80, but the 1.75 about Andujar winning with a 1.5 set start on the handicap at 1.75 looks solid betting material.
Also in Valencia, I’m happy enough to take the 1.45 about Phillip Kohlschreiber defeating Ivan Dodig in a match that takes place on Pista 1 at 3.30pm UK time. Kohlschreiber hasn’t been seen on the tour since losing to Lopez in Shanghai a few weeks ago, but he should have too much quality in these conditions for journeyman Dodig today.
The slow court speed should suit the German, who should be looking to make an impression this week. Dodig’s main weapon is the serve and he can be effective in quick conditions, which he won’t find here. Kohlschreiber should be able to pick him off with time to utilise his big back swings.
They’ve met on two prior occasions with Kohlschreiber winning both. Even though he may take a little while to become attuned to the conditions, I would expect him to come through this one in the end. Dodig was last seen losing to Lukas Lacko, who’s in awful form at the moment, and that is not a good sign for those backing him today.
Back Andujar +1.5 sets to beat Goffin at 1.75
Back Kohlschreiber to beat Dodig at 1.45