French Open Betting: Almighty Almagro to cruise past Seppi

There was nothing to report as far as my wagers were concerned in the men’s draw at the 2013 French Open, as rain washed out my only bet of the day. Fernando Verdasco wasn’t close to getting on court to face Janko Tipsarevic, so that wager is held over to Friday and will now be played at 10am today on Court 3.

There are plenty of second round matches held over from yesterday still to play, as well as eight third round matches in the men’s draw scheduled for today.

Assuming that he’s over the hip problem that he’s been suffering from of late, I like Nico Almagro’s chances of defeating Andreas Seppi pretty comfortably. This match kicks off at around 4pm on Friday and although Seppi has won their two previous meetings, the kind of standard he’s been playing at this clay swing suggests to me that a fit Almagro will have few problems getting by the Italian today.

Losses to Yen-Hsun Lu, Lukas Rosol, Fabio Fognini (twice) and five-set marathon wins over the likes of Leonardo Mayer and Blaz Kavcic are clear signs of Seppi’s level right now and he looked to be struggling with his arm at the end of the last match. I have little doubt that Almagro will win this and he should have enough to cover a minus 5.5 game handicap at around 1.70.

I also think Kevin Anderson has a good chance against Milos Raonic at odds-against today and Jeremy Chardy is too big against Jo-Wilfried Tsonga in these conditions.

Home hopes will rest on Gael Monfils today when the resurgent Frenchman faces Tommy Robredo. This one is a potential banana skin for Monfils; if he’s not careful and goes back into the old, passive, cat-and-mouse style of the past, Tommy will win. But I feel that Gael has enough left in
the tank to do enough.

Robredo too may be a touch fatigued after a five setter against Igor Sijsling in the last round, and Monfils should be aware that this could turn into exactly the kind of long, drawn-out affair that the Frenchman doesn’t want. Consequently, I think we’ll see Monfils go all out and win this in either three or more likely four sets. I’m happy to take the 1.70 about Monfils minus 1.5 sets in this one.

Marin Cilic looks short at 1.23 against Viktor Troicki, who is making life difficult for himself by consistently failing to see out sets. He had to go five when three or four would have done against Daniel Gimeno-Traver last time out.

I’m tempted to back Troicki in this at the odds, as previous matches between the pair show nine sets to six in Cilic’s favour, but they’ve never met on clay and this one could go long. Troicki did himself no favours against Gimeno-Traver and I like the 3.75 about a 3-1 Cilic win in this match.

Best bets
Back Almagro –5.5 games to beat Seppi at 1.70
Back Monfils –1.5 sets to beat Robredo at 1.70
Back Cilic to beat Troicki 3-1 at 3.75