The US Open men’s semi-finals take place in New York tonight, with the top two seeds looking to book their places in this year’s final.
Mikhail Youzhny did enough for my overs bet to come in during his quarter-final loss to Novak Djokovic latterly, while Stan Wawrinka did even better than expected and I plumped for the only wager that didn’t win out of the ones I mentioned in his match against Andy Murray. The Scot was certainly well below par in that match, but Wawrinka was very good and takes his place tonight against number one seed Djokovic at 5pm UK time.
Novak Djokovic vs Stanislas Wawrinka
This looks to me like it will be the more competitive of the two semi-finals, with the Swiss coming here in fine form after beating Tomas Berdych and Andy Murray, dropping just the one set in the process.
There are obvious parallels to be drawn to their Australian Open clash earlier this year that went the full distance and given the respective form of the two players coming into this match, Stan has to have a shot at reaching his first Grand Slam final. Djokovic has been functional and risen to the heights only rarely, but he hasn’t needed to dig much deeper in a dream run to the last four in which only Youzhny can be classed as any kind of tricky opponent.
This is always an interesting watch to see how two of the best backhands in the game match up. Stan’s stylish free flowing single hander takes on the more consistent and punishing double hander of the world number one and it’s going to take a huge effort from Wawrinka to come out on top here.
The price on the Swiss is a little short for me considering that he’s won just two of 16 matches against today’s opponent, butI like the 1.87 about this match going over 170.5 total minutes. Their Melbourne clash was a lengthy 302 minutes and while it won’t take that long because of final set breakers here, it should be around the three hour mark.
Rafael Nadal vs Richard Gasquet
This second semi-final at around 8pm UK time should be an altogether quicker affair, with Gasquet facing an opponent who he surely cannot beat under normal circumstances.
The Frenchman has done remarkably well to reach this stage, having come back from match point down against Milos Raonic to win in five and then gone the distance again with David Ferrer. Richard has produced some of the best tennis we’ve seen at this tournament, but like all of the other single handers he’ll struggle with this match-up as he has done in the past.
Rafa has won all 10 of their career meetings and it’s fairly obvious why with his punishing, heavily top spun cross court forehand rearing up and making Gasquet hit his forehand too high to do any damage.
The market agrees with me and has Nadal at 1.04 and there is little in the way of real value here, unless you fancy Gasquet to cause an upset. The 3-0 Rafa win seems likely and the under 130.5 total minutes holds some appeal at 1.87, as does the under 31.5 total games at 1.50.
Back over 170.5 total minutes in Wawrinka vs Djokovic at 1.87
Follow Sean Calvert's tennis betting tips every day