US Open Betting: Istomin to exploit slow starter Almagro


The action continues in New York today on Day 2 of the 2013 US Open, after a fascinating opening on Monday.

Britain’s Dan Evans stole the show by stunning Kei Nishikori in straight sets, while Ernests Gulbis managed to somehow lose to Andreas Haider-Maurer in five.

Tuesday’s schedule features another 24 first round matches and a few carried over from last night, as rain washed out proceedings late on Monday. The forecast for today is for hot and fairly humid conditions, with the chance of some rain, but a full day’s play looks likely.

In truth, it’s not the most appealing card that I’ve ever seen today from a betting or a viewing perspective, so I’m limiting myself to a couple of wagers.

 

Lukasz Kubot vs Jarkko Nieminen 

Monday’s over bet didn’t find the mark, after a really poor display from Thomaz Bellucci, but this match between two veterans of the tour looks priced up too heavily in favour of the Finn and I expect Kubot to make this more of a battle.

Neither player is in great shape, with Kubot out of form and Nieminen returning from injury, but 1.27 seems really short about Jarkko and the Pole tends to step up massively in Grand Slams, as his Wimbledon quarter final finish shows.

Jarkko hasn’t won a match at a major in three sets since Melbourne in 2010 when he beat Nick Lindahl and I can’t see him having an easy time again when these two face off at around 6pm UK time.

Nieminen hasn’t actually been past the second round of a major since he had a nice draw here in 2008 and the Pole is much the better performer at Slams. I doubt Kubot will have enough to win this, but over 36.5 games at 1.80 looks a good bet to me in what will be their fifth career meeting of a hard fought series.

 

Denis Istomin vs Nicolas Almagro

This is another match where I feel there is some value on the underdog. Almagro is yet to win a match on the North American hard court swing, losing first up in both Montreal and Cincy and he looked totally disinterested in both tournaments.

He doesn’t return well enough on hard courts to make things easy for himself and today he faces an opponent, who is solid and who should push the Spaniard and make things tough for him.

Istomin defeated Almagro twice in 2010 in their only career meetings to date, so the match-up isn’t one that will worry him. There are a few options here to oppose Almagro and I like the 2.40 about Istomin winning the first set. Nico has lost the opening set of his last four matches and this will probably be nip and tuck early on.


Best Bets

Back over 36.5 games in Kubot vs Nieminen at 1.80

Back Istomin to win set one vs Almagro at 2.40