US Open Betting: Kohlschreiber will steal a set from Nadal

Week one of the 2013 US Open ended in good style for my wagers, with both of my best bets proving successful again on Sunday night.

Stan Wawrinka and Marcos Baghdatis played out the expected lengthy encounter, as Baghdatis recovered from a slow start to push the Swiss to the brink of five sets, making my overs bet was a comfortable winner. 

Then, Mikhail Youzhny produced a fine performance over Tommy Haas to take down the German in four, with my +1.5 sets wager landing early in that one.

Monday sees the beginning of the men’s fourth round matches in New York and it’s a slightly later start today, with the matches kicking off not earlier than 6pm UK time.

Janko Tipsarevic vs David Ferrer

This is repeat of last year’s quarter-final, where Ferrer managed to grind out a five set win over the Serb. Neither player comes into this match in the kind of form they were in 12 months ago, but I expect a similar result again today. 

Tipsy has enjoyed a plum draw here so far and he’ll be glad to have at least defended some of his ranking points from last year after a woeful time of it on tour this season. 

Ferrer has hardly sparkled in the last couple of months either and I doubt this one will be much in the way of entertainment. Tipsy hasn’t really been challenged here yet other than by Jack Sock, who couldn’t last the pace, thanks to his dire fitness levels. That is one thing that we know Ferrer will do far better today. 

Tipsy hasn’t beaten a top-10 ranked player since Juan Monaco last October and his all-time record vs top-5 opponents is 4-25, so the odds are stacked against the Serb here. I like the 3-1 Ferrer win here at 3.55.

Phillip Kohlschreiber vs Rafael Nadal

The late match at midnight UK time sees tournament favourite Nadal take on John Isner’s conqueror Kohlschreiber. This should be another win for the Spaniard, but the German is not without a chance of taking a set here. 

Rafa famously does very well against right-handed players with one-handed backhands and he’s won 46 of his last 50 matches against such opponents. Kohlschreiber did beat a disinterested Rafa on grass in Halle last year and he has taken at least a set each time he’s face the former champion on a hard court, so he’s certainly not a complete no-hoper today, as odds of 1.04 on Nadal suggest. 

The German may well fade in the final set after realising he’s beaten, which puts me off the games handicap, but the 2.65 for Kohlschreiber grabbing a set seems worth the risk. Although Rafa has been in fine form since his return from injury on the North American hard court swing, he has dropped sets against single handers Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer, so Philipp has a chance of doing the same here.

Best Bets

Back Ferrer to beat Tipsarevic 3-1 at 3.55

Back Kohlschreiber +2.5 sets to beat Nadal at 2.65

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