US Open Betting: Robson to stretch gnarly Na Li

The ladies singles at the 2013 US Open has reached the third round stage and the first eight matches are scheduled for Friday in New York.

It’s set to be a hot one in New York today, with temperatures peaking at around 28C and Britain’s Laura Robson faces a repeat of last year’s clash with Na Li, while Serena Williams is also in action.

Yesterday’s wagers yielded one winner from two, with Camila Giorgi edging Su Wei Hsieh in two sets, while Petra Kvitova was too good on the day for Bojana Jovanovski to get much of a look in.

Aga Radwanska looks a poor match-up for Nastia Pavlyuchenkova, who will have be super consistent with her often wayward hitting to get past the human backboard that is the Pole, while Sabine Lisicki was impressive yesterday and should have too much for Ekaterina Makarova, but she’s short at 1.75 on a hard court.

Laura Robson vs Na Li

This is arguably the most attractive match-up of the day in terms of the potential for an exciting clash. Robson will be confident coming into this one after disposing of Li in the same round here 12 months ago. 

The Chinese player was around a 1.05 shot that day and starts today at 1.20, which is a touch on the short side for me given her inconsistencies. 

I always prefer siding with Laura as an underdog, as she plays with much more freedom when not expected to win. If Robson can serve well, keep the double faults and unforced errors to a minimum, then she can really test Li, who isn’t exactly a stranger to wild errors herself. The +5.5 games on Robson looks decent here at 1.84. 

My only concern with Robson is her recent wrist injury, but she didn’t seem affected by it in the first two rounds here, so she should be able to give Li a match.

Kaia Kanepi vs Angelique Kerber

Kerber has really struggled to produce her best form this season and she came into this tournament with a target of making the second week, which isn’t exactly exuding confidence. 

The German ground her way past Eugenie Bouchard yesterday in three sets and she may well have to go the distance again today when she faces the powerful Kanepi at around 9pm UK time. 

The tall Estonian has got the better of Kerber in their two previous career meetings, at Wimbledon this season and way back in 2009 on a hard court. 

Kanepi will be fresh after taking a break after Wimbledon due to a back problem and two matches here should be enough to shake off the rustiness. This match will rest upon Kanepi’s winners to errors ratio and it has the potential to be an up and down affair and so I like the over 21.5 games here at 1.85.

For a bigger priced wager today, I’m tempted to go with Sloane Stephens to take down Jamie Hampton in a decider and that one pays 3.80. It looks a tight match-up and may well go all the way. Stephens has the better temperament in these situations and should edge this.

Best Bets

Back Robson +5.5 games to beat Na Li at 1.84

Back over 21.5 games in Kerber/Kanepi at 1.85

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