US Open Men's Betting: Simon To Raise His Game vs Tricky Cilic


The Men’s Singles fourth round completes in New York on Tuesday at the 2014 US Open, with Roger Federer and Tomas Berdych among the big names in action today.

Monday’s wagers in New York ended painfully at around 07:26 UK time this morning, as the joint latest finish in US Open history (02:26 local time) resulted, improbably, in a win for Kei Nishikori, whose foot has that many bandages, tinctures, ointments and strappings on it it’s amazing he can move at all.

Move he did though and Nishikori ended up the winner in five sets after Philipp Kohlschreiber failed to take his set point that would have won my opening wager of the day. 

After a hot, humid and thundery holiday weekend in New York the weather is set to be even hotter on Tuesday, with temperatures hitting 34C and probably feeling a few degrees hotter due to the humidity.

Thunderstorms are set for later in the day at around 18:00 local time (23:00 UK) and it may be a case of survival of the fittest again today, with the opening men’s match of the day set for around 13:30 local time (18:30 UK) on Louis Armstrong Court.

 

Marin Cilic vs Gilles Simon

We scored fairly comfortably with Cilic on the handicap against Kevin Anderson on Sunday, but I won’t be siding with him to win this match at a price of around the 1.59 mark.

Conditions were tricky for Cilic and Anderson in the heat, humidity and wind, but I’ve seen far worse conditions than that and the level of play was pretty mediocre to put it generously. 

Cilic was very up and down in that match and probably could have won it quicker, but he does have huge lapses in matches, and indeed he had one against Simon they last time they met in Melbourne in January.

If memory serves, that match was moved due to a heat delay and Cilic served for a two set lead before collapsing to a five set loss to the Frenchman, with the last two sets ending 6-1, 6-2 to Gillou.

Simon played at the same time as Cilic on Sunday and produced much better tennis to take down a physically spent David Ferrer in four strenuous sets and if I was on the match odds I’s side with the Frenchman today.

He defeated Ferrer by adopting his rarely seen attacking approach, which Simon says he can’t use all the time as his body won’t stand for it, but for me this has four or five sets written all over it.

Both players are prone to peaks and troughs in level and Simon has managed this match up the better over the years with four wins to Marin’s zero and he was certainly the more impressive of the two players in round three.

In heat like we’re going to get today it almost makes the match-up and form a side issue, with fitness and stamina playing a massive part in the outcome and I’m torn between Simon to win the match or over 39.5 total games here.

Cilic’s dismal capitulation in the heat against this opponent last time just edges it in favour of the Simon win at 2.35.

 

Tomas Berdych vs Dominic Thiem

This match-up should really favour the Czech, whose powerfully hit serve and groundies should take away Thiem’s time on the ball and result in errors from the young Austrian.

As honest as ever he is, Thiem rated his chances today as “25-75” which is not too far off, as the layers give him a slightly better chance at 3.80 of causing an upset in this 21:00 UK time clash.

Thiem has taken full advantage of the opportunities he’s been given by injury to Ernests Gulbis and a really slack effort from Feli Lopez, but Berdych will surely put far more pressure on Thiem’s big swings at the ball and I would expect a fairly comfortable win for the Czech.

The 3-0 at 2.48 and the minus 4.5 games at 1.59 both appeal here.

 

Best Bets

Back Simon to beat Cilic at 2.35

Back Berdych –4.5 games to beat Thiem at 1.59