Day three of The Championships Wimbledon 2015 features the world number one Novak Djokovic and two other major champions in Marin Cilic and Stanislas Wawrinka in action.
It’s been a tough old start to the fortnight at the All England Club and Steve Darcis came up against a vastly improved display from Feli Lopez to down my ‘long shot’ of the day on Tuesday.
My ‘sure thing’ treble went down thanks to Guillermo Garcia Lopez losing from match point up against, of all people, Pablo Andujar, who wins on grass every once in a blue moon.
Andujar will have to enquire at reception of the Premier Inn to see if he can extend his room stay a couple of days and James Ward will be with us longer than usual after the Brit defeated a lacklustre Luca Vanni in four sets.
We have 16 round two matches on the card on Wednesday and last year’s Wimbledon second round produced 11 underdog winners from the 32 matches, with Andrey Kuznetsov’s win over David Ferrer at 13.0 being the pick of the prices.
Marin Cilic vs Ricardas Berankis
This looks a solid one for ‘sure thing’ backers, with Berankis here by virtue of a retirement by Andreas Haider-Maurer in round one and holding a 0-3 record against the top-50 on grass.
Indeed, the Lithuanian is 2-7 at main level on grass, with that win over AHM adding to a 2010 Wimbledon success over Carsten Ball, and Cilic is certainly more comfortable on the surface than Berankis.
Cilic has won his last 28 in a row against players ranked 80 upwards and he’s 13-1 at a price of 1.10 and shorter, with the one loss coming against Marius Copil in the 2012 China Open.
We need to think about the heat a little when choosing our short-priced certs on Wednesday, which puts me off a few who tend to boil in the hot sun, and it won’t be easy for the big men today.
It shouldn’t be a problem for Aussie Nick Kyrgios though and he faces Juan Monaco, who is here thanks to a dire performance from Florian Mayer in round one.
Monaco may well put up a fight early on and should at least keep Kyrgios honest, but he won’t be able to do a great deal about the power that NK brings to the court and a set is the best that Pico can hope for in this 14:00 UK time start.
A Cilic/Kyrgios double pays around the 1.22 mark and looks a solid choice for short-priced punters.
John Millman vs Marcos Baghdatis
I chose Simone Bolelli over Millman as a ‘long shot’ the other day, and hopefully the Aussie’s win over Tommy Robredo won’t be his only big-priced success of this tournament.
All things being equal one would expect Baghdatis to win this, but his fitness has to be a huge concern for anyone thinking about backing him at 1.29 here after he struggled through a four set win over Donald Young.
The Cypriot limped out of the Nottingham semi final after appearing to tear a calf muscle and he had it bandaged up again in the match with Young and was poking and manipulating it throughout that one.
If Millman can keep Baghdatis out there for long enough for the injury to play a part he has every chance of making the Cypriot an odds-on second round loser for the second straight year, after he was beaten by Leo Mayer 12 months ago.
There’s certainly enough in this to make it worth taking a chance on Millman at what looks a viable price at around 3.50.
Kevin Anderson vs Marsel Ilhan
The prices on Anderson are getting a bit silly now, with the Queen’s runner-up being quoted at 1.05 to beat Ilhan, who will be buzzing after beating another big server in Jerzy Janowicz in round one.
I don’t expect the Turk to upset Anderson in this 16:00 approx. UK time clash, but clearly Ilhan is no mug on grass, despite limited matches on it and 1.05 looks awfully short to me.
Anderson wasn’t overly impressive in round one against Lucas Pouille, who admitted that he didn’t serve well enough yet still took the South African to four sets and I can foresee a similar result on Wednesday.
Ilhan has beaten Feli Lopez, Albano Olivetti and Kenny De Schepper as well as Janowicz, so he can handle big servers, and the over 9.5 games in set one and over 32.5 total games look good in this match.
Of Anderson’s 14 matches at Wimbledon he’s won only two in fewer than 32.5 games and both were against opponents ranked outside the top-120.
Therefore the 1.90 about over 32.5 seems pretty decent purely on the maths.
Elsewhere, another big server Milos Raonic could also be made to go to at least four sets by Tommy Haas, but that one is guesswork on the German’s fitness.
Grigor Dimitrov also looks less than secure as a 1.17 shot against Stevie Johnson in the form he’s been in and Johnson +2.5 sets is an option in that one, with the Bulgarian still trying to find his best form.
Sure thing: Back Cilic and Kyrgios in a double at 1.22
Value bet: Back over 32.5 games in Anderson/Ilhan at 1.90
Long shot: Back Millman to beat Baghdatis at 3.50