Wimbledon 2016 Betting: Tipsarevic can test struggling Simon on day one


The Championships Wimbledon begins on Monday, with 32 men's singles matches from the top half of the draw.

The 10-day weather forecast doesn't look great, with rain expected all week, but it looks like Monday could be the best day and the one with the least disruption.

Nicolas Almagro vs Rogerio Dutra Silva

As usual there are some pretty awful grass court players in round one of Wimbledon and the ones with the worst stats include Diego Schwartzman, Pablo Carreno Busta, Damir Dzumhur, Paulo Lorenzi and Dutra Silva.

Schwartzman would be a cert to lose to Robin Haase ordinarily, but the Dutchman's head is all the over place due to the ongoing saga of his coach being arrested for murder, and it's a little bit of a risk trusting him at the moment.

Milos Raonic is 1.01 to beat Carreno Busta, so not a lot of value there, and Dzumhur's opponent Denis Kudla has been pretty poor and very disappointing so far this grass swing, so instead I fancy an Almagro/Sergiy Stakhovsky double at around 1.40.

Almagro is hardly a grass court god himself, but his stats aren't bad at all, with an 86.5 percent service hold mark and a 13.5 percent break mark, which compares with 67.6 percent and 2.7 percent for Dutra Silva (admittedly from a small sample).

Dutra Silva has played 10 matches on grass in his career and of the nine completed ones he's won two - one in 2007 against Simone Vagnozzi in Wimbledon qualies and the other against Kristian Messaros at the same event in 2014.

Stakhovsky walloped him by 10 games the last time Dutra Silva made the main draw in 2013 and Almagro should hang his head in shame if he doesn't win this pretty comfortably.

Stakho meanwhile faces Yoshihito Nishioka, whose weak serve is a liability on grass, and the Japanese has managed only 65.8 percent service holds on this surface so far in his career.

He qualified by beating very little and Stakhovsky dealt with him easily in Halle a fortnight ago and this looks a perfect opportunity for the Ukrainian to get his Wimbledon off to a good start. 

Stakho's stats on grass are pretty good, as you'd expect from a man who once beat Roger Federer here, with an 86.2 percent service hold and 19 percent break mark and he should win this 11:30 UK time start. 

Janko Tipsarevic vs Gilles Simon

It's coming back to Tipsy slowly but surely after a couple of years of injury problems and I like the idea of siding with the Serb in some way against the struggling Simon is this 13:00 approx. UK time start.

Oddly, this pair have played each other 10 times already in their careers, with Simon winning eight of them and that and Tispy's lack of matches in the last two years has seen Simon put in as a 1.2 favourite, which looks short.

Tipsarevic beat Grigor Dimitrov on the grass of Queen's Clue before finding Marin Ciic too much to handle, but there's no shame in that and wins over Almagro and Juan Monaco at the Boodles on grass this weekend won't have done him much harm either.

Simon is a confidence player in the extreme, capable of brilliance and mediocrity in equal measure and on grass his pushing can be cruelly exposed if he's not feeling good about his game and he can't be at the moment.

Beaten by Kyle Edmund at Queen's and crushed in the end by Juan Martin Del Potro in Stuttgart the Frenchman may find Tipsarevic a tougher opponent than the prices suggest and several wagers appeal here.

The 4.50 on Tipsarevic is tempting for the win, but the 3.15 about him taking set one is perhaps more viable given the Serb's lack of proper match fitness, and over 34.5 games looks good value too at 1.85.

Brydan Klein vs Nicolas Mahut

The veteran Frenchman will probably win this one, but probably only because Klein has been away from the circuit for a long while with injuries prior to coming back for French Open quaies.

The Brit has had six matches on the grass now this swing and may well prove to be a more stubborn opponent than the terrible odds of 1.07 on Mahut would imply. 

Mahut has a really poor record at Wimbledon, despite his successes on grass elsewhere, and in 16 main draw matches at the All England Club he's only won two in straight sets - one against Jan Hajek in 2013 and the other versus Kristof Vliegen in 2006.

Even Paulo Lorenzi took him to five sets here a few years ago and last season Filip Krajinovic extended Mahut to 42 games in what remains to date the Serb's only main draw match on grass at main level.

Not the sort of record you'd want from a 1.07 chance and the odds are all down to wins in Rosmalen and a good performance against Andy Murray at Queen's, but conditions at Wimbledon are usually much slower than Queen's and clearly he's rarely found them to his liking.

Looking at Mahut's stats at Wimbledon compared with his career as a whole on grass is interesting. His service hold stats are about the same, but at Wimbledon he only breaks serve 10.2 percent of the time, compared with 18.6 percent lifetime on grass.

Much of that is probably down to 'that' match with John Isner, but struggles against Lorenzi and Krajinovic and losses to Alejandro Falla, Marcel Granollers, and Tommy Robredo tell a tale and a few bets appeals here.

The over 32.5 games at 1.94 has great value based on Mahut's struggles here and Klein's keenness to do well after being handed a wild card.  

Best Bets
Sure thing
: Back Almagro and Stakhovsky at 1.40
Value bet: Back over 32.5 games in Mahut/Klein at 1.94
Long shot: Back Tipsarevic to win set one vs Simon at 3.15