Wimbledon Betting: Djokovic to drop set in Berdych test


The quarter finals of the 2013 Wimbledon Championships begin on Wednesday, with some interesting names in the last eight.

Alongside Andy Murray, Novak Djokovic, Juan Martin Del Potro and David Ferrer are Lukasz Kubot, Jerzy Janowicz, Fernando Verdasco and Tomas Berdych.

Murray’s comfortable ride seemingly to the latter stages of the tournament looks set to continue when he takes on Verdasco, who’s in his first Wimbledon quarter final. Although he’s been pretty good this week he hasn’t been really tested either and I like Murray’s chances in that one.

But Djokovic looks to have a much tougher clash with Tomas Berdych, who defeated Nole on the grass here in 2010 and in their most recent meeting on the clay of Rome recently.

Both players seem to be fit and injury-free, although Berdych did have a slight back problem, but that’s nothing to worry about for Berdych backers by all accounts.

This has been a good match-up for Djokovic over the years, with those two wins for Berdych that I mentioned being the only ones in 15 attempts against the world number one, so he’s a warm order at around 1.11 for the win.

Djokovic is yet to be tested this fortnight so far and I expected Tommy Haas to do some damage, but an awfully slow start cost him any real chance. So Berdych needs to be on it straight away to have a chance.

The problem Berdych has is that he needs to red line it for three sets to beat Nole these days and that’s tough to do but on grass, where I don’t think Novak is able to defend quite as well as on other surfaces, the chance is there for the Czech to at least push Djokovic.

The bets on my shortlist are the 3-1 Djokovic win at 2.85 and the over 40.5 total games at around 2.20.

The other semi final in that half of the draw is really tough to call, due largely to the unknown physical state of both of the protagonists.

David Ferrer has ankle and toe problems and also has blisters, while Juan Martin Del Potro has his knee bandaged from a fall earlier in the tournament, but neither player appeared too inconvenienced by their issues in the last round.

Ferrer stunned Delpo here last year with a comfortable straight sets win over the Argentine in what Ferrer has described as his best match on the grass. The Spaniard has a 6-2 overall lead over Delpo including the last four in a row on clay, grass, hard and indoor hard.

On that basis, 1.60 for a Ferrer win seems the obvious call, but Delpo has probably played the better tennis here this fortnight and now that the courts are dryer his questionable movement becomes less of an issue.

Del Potro hasn’t been in trouble at all this Wimbledon and is yet to drop a set in the tournament. Interestingly, in all but one of their eight meetings the opening set has ended in less than 9.5 games, which makes the 2.35 about that wager seem appealing.

Over 40.5 games looks highly likely in this one, as neither player seems to have a clear advantage to me. The slight value lies with Delpo at 2.30, rather than a short-looking 1.60 on the Spaniard given his injury issues.

Best Bets

Back Djokovic to beat Berdych 3-1 at 2.85

Back over 40.5 games in Ferrer vs Del Potro at 1.85

Check out our brilliant new infographic, Tennis: The Twitter Connection