Wimbledon Betting: Injuries to hamper seeds Ferrer & Del Potro

The players are back for the second week of Wimbledon 2013 after the middle Sunday break and it’s fourth round action in the men’s draw on Monday.

Andy Murray features along with Novak Djokovic, David Ferrer, Juan Martin Del Potro and a selection of the game’s less heralded performers.

Adrian Mannarino, Kenny de Schepper and Jerzy Janowicz have never been at this stage here before, while Fernando Verdasco and Lukas Kubot aren’t regulars this week by any means.

The remainder of my bets from Friday and Saturday were hit and miss, with Andreas Seppi’s five set win over Kei Nishikori being the highlight of Saturday at a tasty 3.2, while Benoit Paire and Juan Monaco were both pretty poor in defeat – Paire was particularly woeful. 

The day was rounded off with a winner though when Novak Djokovic easily covered the minus 8.5 game handicap with an impressive win over Jeremy Chardy.

The first wagers that stand out are for injured duo David Ferrer and Juan Martin Del Potro to fall at this fourth round stage. Ferrer has been having painkilling injections in his ankle all week and now has a toe problem, while Del Potro suffered a bad fall on Saturday and may be struggling. Even at fully fit, a match on grass against Seppi is no gimme for someone who moves as questionably on the surface as Delpo. His confidence in the conditions won’t have been helped by that tumble either.

The pair have played once before on grass at Queen’s last year and Delpo won in straight sets, but Seppi will fancy his chances in this, with Del Potro struggling with his knee. This is one to watch the market in, but the 3.80 for the Italian appeals, with a retirement a distinct possibility.

Ferrer has been struggling with injury and hasn’t been his usual self so far in the tournament and Ivan Dodig will be confident he can trouble the Spaniard. Dodig took a set off Ferrer in their only career meeting indoors in Valencia at the end of last season and may well do so again. He’s one to consider at 3.40, but I think I’ll leave that one with the injury situation unknown.

Murray also takes on an injured opponent in Mikhail Youzhny, who has had Achilles, back and foot problems within the last fortnight and it’s not clear whether the Russian is in the right shape to cause problems for the Scot in this match. If he’s fit he could easily take a set, but again, we’re betting blind in that one.

Of the players left in the top half, Tommy Haas has the best chance of upsetting Novak Djokovic. The set and game handicaps on the German appeal in that match, with the world number one put in too short after that impressive display against Chardy.

Another who is too short is Jerzy Janowicz, who is put in at 1.25, which seems awfully skinny against someone as effective on grass as Jurgen Melzer. I’ve been avoiding backing the Austrian due to him having a hernia, but it doesn’t seem to be bothering him at all, as he still played doubles the other day and went five sets on top of his singles activity.

Melzer is really effective at dealing with big servers like Janowicz as his fine records against John Isner, Milos Raonic and Ivo Karlovic prove. He’s 2-1 vs Isner, 1-0 against Raonic and 5-1 against Karlovic, so the big guys don’t bother him too much and he looks good with a 5.5 game start at 1.84.

I’ll also have a small investment on him outright at 3.90, as I do feel he has a good chance in this one. JJ’s price is too short and it’s largely due to his win over Almagro, who is a poor returner and it looks artificially low to me.

Best Bets

Back Seppi to beat Del Potro at 3.20

Back Melzer +5.5 games to beat Janowicz at 1.84

Back Melzer to beat Janowicz at 3.90

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