Friday’s wager at the Citi Open in Washington DC proved successful, as Marcos Baghdatis took the opening set against John Isner in their quarter-final. As I suspected, that was as good as it got for the Cypriot, but it was all that was required from him to land my best bet of the day.
Elsewhere, Tommy Haas and Grigor Dimitrov played out the tight match that was expected, as did Dmitry Tursunov and Marinko Matosevic, with Haas and Tursunov coming out on top. Juan Martin Del Potro eased past Kevin Anderson in straight sets to set up an attractive-looking semi-final clash with Haas.
The first of the two semi-finals though is Tursunov vs Isner. These two are meeting for the first time on the tour, with the American a strong favourite at around 1.25. This one won’t involve a great deal of subtlety and in these quick conditions it will be won by the man who serves the better at the big moments, which will probably be Isner.
There’s little value in that 1.25, so for me the bets here are either the handicap or the overs. The 1.9 about this one going over the 23.5 total games mark looks the bet here, with tie-breaks highly likely.
The second semi-final begins at around midnight UK time tonight and it will be the fifth meeting between Haas and Del Potro. It’s a match-up that Delpo has dominated so far to the tune of eight sets to nil. Their most recent match was on slow hard courts in Indian Wells in the spring, when Delpo dropped just three games en route to a simple win.
Consequently, he’s been put in at a tight-looking 1.22 tonight, but it’s hard to make a case for the veteran German, who’s trying to defend final points from last year in Washington DC. Haas admits that it’s a match-up that he struggles with and for me the question here is how much the Argentine will win by.
Conditions suit Del Potro here and he’s been revelling in them so far this week. Haas has had a far tougher ride to this last-four spot and I suspect it will catch up with him today in the form of another straight sets loss to Del Potro.
Haas can certainly make one set tight, but he may well lose heart if he goes behind early and I like the 1.65 about this one finishing in less than 22.5 total games.
Back over 23.5 games in Tursunov/Isner at 1.90
Back under 22.5 games in Del Potro/Haas at 1.65