Thursday was another winning day at the Katowice Open as my best bet was successful in the opening match of the day. Kiki Bertens started superbly against Roberta Vinci and the Dutch player cruised through the first set 6-2, at which point I thought I had opted for the wrong bet, as Bertens was doing more than just troubling the Italian. But the determined Vinci found her game and fought back, taking the win and bringing my overs bet in.
Friday’s quarter-finals see Vinci in action again against a similar kind of opponent in Karolina Pliskova. Pliskova has a big game and outplayed Kaia Kanepi convincingly in the last round, but it remains to be seen how she’ll handle the totally different kind of pace and spin that will come at her from Vinci’s racquet.
Annika Beck vs Maria-Elena Camerin is not a quarter-final that many would have predicted, given that this is only Beck’s second ever last eight appearance at tour level and Camerin hadn’t won a match in the main draw in 2013 until this week. The Italian is in her first quarter-final since 2010 and hasn’t won one since 2006, so this is a big game for both of these women.
Consequently, I suspect that this match will go to a nervy three sets or at least a close two, with Beck too short in the betting for me at around 1.42. I think the fact that she’s aiming for her first semi-final will make it a tense one and I’m drawn to the Italian on the handicap or the overs. Of the two bets I just prefer the over 20.5 total games at 1.85, as a long battle seems likely as Camerin defends for her life.
Petra Kvitova is next up at 6pm taking on Petra Martic, who defeated the Czech in their only career meeting so far. This could be interesting if Kvitova has one of those days where she can’t find the court.
The last match of the day could be another grind, with Alexandra Cadantu defending with all her might against the Israeli Shahar Peer, who sits just one place behind the Romanian in the world rankings. I think Cadantu is a little short at 1.65 and I’d probably prefer the 4.15 about a 2-1 Cadantu win if I were backing her today.
Best bet: Back over 20.5 games in Beck vs Camerin at 1.85