It's fourth round day at the Sony Open in Miami, and the best bet for me today is to back against Ana Ivanovic - who beat Sveta Kuznetsova yesterday - in her meeting with Sara Errani.
On this slow Miami surface the improved serving stats that we’ve seen from Ana so far this week won’t help her as much against Errani, who will get too many balls back in play and eventually draw the errors from the Serb’s racquet. The windy conditions in Key Biscayne won’t help Ana’s highly questionable ball toss and she’ll have to be dialed in from start to finish to defeat the energetic Italian.
Errani has dropped just five games in total to reach this stage of the event and although Ivanovic leads the head-to-head 2-1, both of her wins came in 2009. Errani won their most recent encounter at Roland Garros last year. This will be their first meeting on a hard court and this slow, gritty surface will surely favour Errani’s retrieving game, which leads me to side with her in this one at 1.60.
Elsewhere Kirsten Flipkens looks short at 1.28 to beat Ajla Tomljanovic and Garbine Muguruza can cause Na Li some problems. Sloane Stephens could also trouble defending champion Aga Radwanska.
Best bet: Back Errani to beat Ivanovic at 1.60