Saturday’s semi-finals at the 2013 Katowice Open went the way I expected them to and therefore both of my best bets were successful. In the opening match of the day Roberta Vinci was in no mood to hang around against first time semi-finalist Annika Beck, who was allowed just one game by the Italian.
My 2-0 Vinci bet was never in doubt and neither was Petra Kvitova’s win with a 5.5 game handicap deficit against Alexandra Kvitova. The number one seed looked like she was going to emulate Vinci when she took the opener 6-0 against the Romanian and only a second set wobble from Kvitova allowed Cadantu into the match. But the handicap eased home when Petra took it 6-4.
The final in Katowice represents the second career meeting between Vinci and Kvitova, but the first on clay. Much has changed since their first match in 2011, though, and I’m not sure about Kvitova as a 1.48 favourite in this one.
The tactics when this match begins at 4pm UK time this afternoon are simple. Kvitova will go for everything and if most of her shots go in then she wins. The question is over her accuracy.
Vinci will presumably try and expose Kvitova’s questionable movement with a variety of drop shots and also try and get her to hit on the run, which she sometimes finds tough to do on clay, as she doesn’t slide into the ball.
I have Petra as around a 60/40 winner of this, so the value is to side with Vinci in some capacity, as she could make this an awkward day for the Czech. I don’t really trust Kvitova not to have a dip at some point in this match in any case, so I’m siding with the over 2.5 sets in this one at 2.40.
Best bet: Back over 2.5 sets at 2.40