Tuesday at La Caja Magica proved to be a frustrating experience as far as WTA betting was concerned, as my best bet was beaten in two tie breaks.
The renowned choker Sabine Lisicki can’t have won many nail-biters 7-6, 7-6, but that’s what happened in her match against Dominika Cibulkova.
It was an awful match to have to suffer as a Domi backer, with both players struggling to keep the ball in court at times. Cibulkova had plenty of chances to win it, but failed to take them.
Wednesday’s schedule in Madrid features a couple of matches that I quite like the look of from a betting perspective and the first of these kicks off at 9.50am UK time for early birds.
Kaia Kanepi lost to Carla Suarez Navarro last week in Portugal, but the big hitting Estonian should find conditions more to her liking here and some quick revenge is on the cards.
Suarez Navarro - for the second straight year - choked in the final in Portugal. This time it was against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, but she came back well to defeat Sam Stosur in the first round here.
Perhaps surprisingly, Carla has never been past the second round of a clay Premier Mandatory event in her career and I would’t be too quick to back her today at around 1.52 against Kanepi.
The Estonian should be assisted by the speedy conditions and her first strike tennis is likely to get things done. Unless the unforced errors get the better of her, the 2.50 on Kanepi is worth chancing in today’s circumstances.
I also like the chances of Julia Goerges for similar reasons against Varvara Lepchenko, whose price seems short - presumably due to her win over Roberta Vinci.
But that wasn’t such a great surprise given the quick conditions and Lepchenko’s win over Vinci on clay in Davis Cup earlier this season. Goerges, like Kanepi, has the big game for this situation – if she can harness it.
Julia can certainly frustrate with her tendency to mentally go walkabout in matches, but she’s a former semi finalist here. She has the opportunity to progress today if she can keep her head at the vital times.
Back Kanepi to beat Suarez Navarro at 2.50
Back Goerges to beat Lepchenko at 2.10
Follow Sean Calvert's tennis betting tips every day