The last-16 ladies in contention for the 2014 Coupe Rogers are in action on Thursday in Montreal after another profitable day’s betting on Wednesday.
Garbiñe Muguruza ensured another good day when she battled through the opening set against Maria Sharapova to land a nice 3.40 winner, before Madison Keys just failed to get over the line for another.
Keys led by a break in the final set of her match with Sabine Lisicki, but was pegged back by the German for a loss in that one.
Thursday’s card looks to hold a fair bit of scope for backing underdogs, with cases to be made for the majority of outsiders today.
Sabine Lisicki vs Agnieszka Radwanska
For the third straight time I’m going to get involved in a Lisicki match and although I thought she might get outhit by Keys yesterday she surely has conditions in her favour against the out of form Pole.
Radwanska has been poor for a fair while now compared with her best form and she’s been beaten as a short priced favourite in her four previous tournaments coming into Montreal.
It’s certainly been a summer to forget for Aga up until now and perhaps she can get back on track with a win here, but she seems lacking in belief and Lisicki’s power game can hurt her in these quick conditions.
The German has won two of their three career meetings and she’s looked like she’s got a bit of her game face back after a pretty poor season prior to this tournament.
Consistency has always been a problem for Sabine and she’ll need to serve somewhere near her best and make plenty on the weak serve of Aga, which, if she does, should lead to a successful day.
Lisicki’s price of 2.20 is appealing and the 2-1 to her at 4.60 looks the one for bigger priced punters.
My second bet today is a tough choice to narrow down from a list that includes Lucie Safarova +5.5 games to beat Serena Williams; Maria Sharapova’s match to be under 19.5 games; Venus Williams to beat Angelique Kerber; Shelby Rogers +5.5 games to beat Caroline Wozniacki and Jelena Jankovic to beat Coco Vandeweghe.
There are plusses and minuses in all of those, with Jankovic and Vandeweghe both likely to be tired after very tough three-set matches yesterday, with Coco’s match ending after midnight, which makes that one a bit tougher to call.
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Caroline Wozniacki vs Shelby Rogers
It’s a tough decision, but I’m just going to side with Rogers here in these quick conditions to cover the handicap of 5.5 games against an in-form Wozniacki.
Caro has been in good touch this summer and won Istanbul a few weeks ago on hard, but this is perhaps a bit quicker and the big hitting of Rogers can worry the Dane here.
We had a very nice winner with Rogers over Genie Bouchard earlier this week and it’s probably asking a bit much for the American to land another upset, but 5.5 games seems a bit generous, with Woz always vulnerable to power.
Caro’s made a career from winning this sort of match and she’s won 17 of her last 18 against under-23-year-olds, which puts me off the Rogers win, but Woz will do well to win this comfortably.
She has shown some good form in Montreal so far, but the opposition hasn’t had the kind of power that Rogers has at her disposal and this could be a tougher day for Wozniacki than a price of 1.20 suggests.
Heather Watson had a real battle yesterday against Domi Cibulkova and an injury to Vika Azarenka today means that the Brit is too short at 3.0 for the upset.
Had Vika been fit Watson would be more like a 4.5 shot, but a fall in her last match has created big doubts and if you’re backing Watson today you’re perhaps not getting the best of prices, given how comfortably Vika has dealt with the Brit in the past.
Sharapova should deal with Carla Suarez Navarro pretty comfortably in these conditions, with the Spaniard having a tendency to go away tamely when she thinks she’s beaten, which makes the unders appeal there.
So, plenty of options today on what looks a great day’s tennis in prospect.
Back Lisicki to beat Radwanska at 2.20
Back Rogers +5.5 games to beat Wozniacki at 1.75