There’s first and second round action in Bastad set for Wednesday at the Swedish Open after a profitable day’s WTA betting on Tuesday.
It was one winner from the only bet that ran yesterday and fortunately for me my more circumspect option of backing Johanna Larsson +1.5 sets prevented what would have been a very painful loss.
The home hope came back from a set down to lead Kaia Kanepi by 5-2 in the final set and after already landing my +1.5 set wager Larsson twice served for the match and failed both times, losing the last five games and the match.
My other bet was void when Teliana Pereira retired after only four games of her match with Yulia Putintseva and annoyingly the other one I considered ended in an easy odds-against success for Richel Hogenkamp over favourite Karolina-Anna Schmiedlova.
Wednesday’s play in Bastad features the remaining four first round matches and eight in all to be played in conditions that are still on the slow side.
Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor vs Julia Goerges
Kanepi complained after her narrow win over Larsson that the conditions made it difficult to attack and it could well prove to be the case that Goerges struggles to adapt to the situation.
The German doesn’t really know any other way to play other than to hit winners and against an accomplished clay courter such as MTTF it may well not be her day today.
Goerges comes into this lacking wins, with none since the French Open and she’s made just two quarter finals since making the final of Linz back in October 2012.
That is quite shocking form for a player of her ability and things didn’t go her way at all last week in Bad Gastein, where she failed to cope with the altitude and produced a slew of unforced errors.
She’ll need a lot better than that today against an opponent also looking for her first win since Paris after two three set losses on grass to good opponents and a defeat back on the clay last week.
That loss to Dinah Pfizenmaier in Bad Gastein was at least close and she may have needed that to adjust back to the clay.
It certainly looks as if things will be in her favour today and 1.75 seems fair about an MTTF win today.
For my second bet I’m torn between backing Chanelle Scheepers and Lara Arruabarena and I’m just going to side with the South African.
Chanelle Scheepers vs Laura Siegemund
It often proves profitable to back against a player in the next round after they’ve just had the best win of their career and that was the case with Siegemund yesterday over Slava Shvedova.
I mentioned in Tuesday’s preview that Shvedova could be vulnerable in her first match on clay for a while and that put me off backing her, but after a maiden win over a top-100 opponent it’ll be tough for Laura to do it again today.
Scheepers is hardly a model of consistency – anything but – though she should have more than enough tools at her disposal to win this one.
The South African is good against lower ranked opposition, having won six of her last seven against such players and 1.65 seems reasonable about another such victory today.
Back Torro-Flor to beat Goerges at 1.75
Back Scheepers to beat Siegemund at 1.65