The Arizona Diamondbacks will get enough out of their starter Brandon McCarthy to nab a home win on Tuesday against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
McCarthy, an off-season acquisition, had a horrible debut for Arizona last Thursday, giving up six runs in five innings of work. But the key was he’s healthy. In fact, McCarthy said he felt great and threw a lot of strikes.
He blamed the poor performance on missing location in the strike zone. When he avoided the disabled list in 2012, McCarthy never had back-to-back dismal starts. On the three occasions he gave up four or more runs in a game, he never yielded more than two earned runs in the next outing. Look for a similar bounce back here.
The Pirates’ starter, James McDonald, had a lot of talent, but it rarely shows itself on the road. Last season, he had a 2.37 ERA in Pittsburgh and a 5.95 ERA everywhere else. Go with the D-Backs for the win at 1.65 and avoid the Pirates (2.25).
Look for hot bats in St. Louis when the Cardinals host the Cincinnati Reds. This game will feature two of the best hitting teams in this early season.
The Reds are second in runs scored in the National League and the Cardinals are just behind them, tied for third. Combined, they’re averaging nearly 14 runs a game.
Reds starter Bronson Arroyo is an all-or-nothing pitcher. When he has his stuff he can be quite effective but when he’s facing potent lineups it’s another story.
Consider the vast split in his ERA in games he won (2.47) and those he lost (7.09) in 2012. For the Cards, pitcher Lance Lynn faded in the second half – he posted a 4.32 ERA compared to a 3.41 ERA in the first half – and he looked shaky in his first 2013 starter giving up four runs in four innings of work.
The upshot: go with over 8.5 runs at 2.00 instead of the under at 1.82.
Best Bet: Back the Arizona Diamondbacks at 1.65 against the Pittsburgh Pirates
Follow Josh Chetwynd's MLB betting tips every day