Home run (Safe bet)
In Colorado, look for the Rockies and the Arizona Diamondbacks to score more than 10.5 runs; take it at 1.91.
This Sunday game is your last chance of the season to get in on the absurd run-scoring environment that is Coors Field. After this, the Rockies will finish off their season on the road, so their hitters be keen to make the most of their final swings in Denver. Truly, Colorado is a Jekyll-and-Hyde offensive club when it comes to their home-and-away splits. At home they’ve posted a .320 batting average, .371 on base percentage and a .525 slugging percentage. Everywhere else those numbers freefall to .227/.277/.354, respectively.
Not surprisingly, the Rockies average more than six runs a game at Coors. That’s a robust number and one that they could surpass here with Wade Miley on the pitcher’s mound. Miley is a solid performer, but against the Rockies he’s struggled in 2014. In three starts over 20 innings, he has a 5.40 ERA versus Colorado. His pitching adversary will likely be Christian Bergman (note: teams have been doing some last minute shuffling with their rotations at the end of the season). If Bergman does get the call, he’s a guy Diamondback hitters will be pleased to see. In eight starts this year, Bergman has a 5.56 ERA. He did hold Arizona to one run in 5 1/3 innings in his one start against Arizona, but his five walks in that game suggest he was more lucky than good in that result.
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
Go with the Houston Astros at 2.20 at home to prevail over the Seattle Mariners. This is a rare situation in which I see a team with no motivation to succeed beating a club that still has post-season possibilities. The reason for this unique call – the pitching match-up really favours the lowly Astros.
Seattle starter Hisashi Iwakuma is struggling mightily. Sure, he has a 14-8 record and a 3.42 ERA for the year, but recently he’s been a different, much worse, pitcher. In his past five games, he has a 9.28 ERA and in his past two, he’s lost them both, registering a 12.91 ERA.
In contrast, Collin McHugh is a little known pitcher, who has done really good work for the Astros. For the year, he’s 10-9 with a 2.66 ERA. As good as those number are – especially considering the fact he throws for a team with a sub-.500 winning percentage – McHugh has been particularly studly lately. In his past five games, he’s an undefeated 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA.
Considering the Astros actually came into this weekend with a better record of its last twenty games than the Mariners, this is a contest primed for an upset.