Blue Jays v Nationals
A low-scorer is on the cards Monday in Toronto when the Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals. With Brandon Morrow pitching for the Blue Jays, I’d typically say his club was a shoo-in for the win. He’s currently in such an impressive groove. Over his past nine stars, he’s won seven games and in those seven victories he’s posted a 0.52 ERA. But steer toward the over-under instead as Washington’s pitcher Edwin Jackson is capable of pulling out a close one. Though he’s 0-2 on the road, he has a very good 2.89 ERA. He also has a lot of experience pitching at Rogers Center. In eight career appearances he’s 1-0 with a respectable 3.23 ERA. While picking Toronto at 1.62 (compared to the Nationals at 2.30) wouldn’t be a bad bet, I’d lean toward going under 8.0 runs at 1.95 as the starters are unlikely to allow the over at 1.85 tonight.
Marlins v Red Sox
In Josh Johnson I trust when the Miami Marlins host the Boston Red Sox. The Marlins’ Johnson was one of baseball’s best pitchers before injuries sidelined him for much of 2011. This year, he started extremely slow, but the re-emergence of the ace is beginning to take hold lately. In his last five starts, he’s 3-1 with a 3.03 ERA. He’s also coming off his best start of this campaign, giving up just two runs and striking out nine in 7 2/3 innings against the Atlanta Braves. The fact that he’s pitching at home should help matters as his ERA is more than a run better at Marlins Park that on the road (4.09 versus 5.33). Boston has a strong lineup, but Johnson should be up to the task as Miami, nicely priced at 1.92, should prevail over the Red Sox at 1.88.