Blue Jays v Red Sox
Saturday’s matchup between Boston Red Sox at the Toronto Blue Jays is a perfect reminder there is a big difference between high prospects and high performance. The Jays starter Kyle Drabek is a former first round draft pick who scouts have long expected to be a front line starter. Instead, he has been highly inconsistent, showing more of an ability for bad performances (like his last outing when he gave up nine runs in three innings against the Texas Rangers) than sterling starts. His key problem is his control – Drabek has nearly walked as many batters (37) as he’s recorded strike outs (42). Boston has not coaxed a lot of walks in 2012, but they are veteran enough hitters to make the most out of Drabek’s Achilles heel. As for the Red Sox’s pitcher, Felix Doubront, unlike Drabek, he signed as an unheralded amateur free agent. Yet, he’s the one showing great skill on the mound. He hasn’t given up more than two runs in any of his past four starts and leads the Boston rotation in strikeouts with 59. Go with Doubront’s substance over expectations for Drabek and pick the Red Sox at 1.88 instead of the Blue Jays at 1.92.
Mets v Cardinals
When the New York Mets host the St. Louis Cardinals two highly successful under-the-radar pitchers should keep the run total down. The Cardinals’ Lance Lynn has been a key to St. Louis’ respectable early season performance. He’s 8-1, but has been particularly sharp on the road, where he’s gone 5-0 with a 2.04 ERA. The Mets’ starter RA Dickey has also been fantastic with an overall 7-1 record, but in this one he will be in his comfort zone at Citi Field where he’s 4-0 with a 1.83 ERA. One of those pitcher’s perfect record will likely go down, but it probably won’t be because of poor pitching. Go with under 7.0 runs at 2.00 as its doubtful either starter will falter enough to go over at 1.81.