The Los Angeles Dodgers will have the right pitcher getting the assignment against the Arizona Diamondbacks at home on Monday.
Quite simply, Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw should deliver for his club. The reason: he very rarely falters at home. In fact, he’s only lost back-to-back games at home once in his last nineteen starts at Dodger Stadium.
Of course, that happened in his most recent two home starts. So what are the odds that he’ll lose a third game in a row? The answer: Unprecedented. In 87 career home starts he has never lost three straight at Dodger Stadium.
This could be a first, but don’t expect it as Diamondback hitters own a combined .198 lifetime batting average against Kershaw.
Diamondbacks starter Wade Miley has followed up a promising 2012 rookie campaign with so-so work in 2013. He has a 4.92 ERA overall and has been struggling as of late. In the past month he owns a 7.94 ERA.
Pick Kershaw to keep his streak alive at home. Los Angeles is the choice at 1.50.
The Milwaukee Brewers will get a much needed road win versus the Miami Marlins. Between the two starters – Ricky Nolasco (Marlins) and Yovani Gallardo (Brewers) – Nolasco has actually been the better pitcher so far this season.
His 3.61 ERA is solid. But his problem is with the hitters he must face in the Brewers lineup. Milwaukee batters have an impressive cumulative .385 batting average and .590 slugging percentage lifetime against Nolasco.
In other words, they tee off against Marlins’ starter. Gallardo has been pretty awful at times this season as evidenced by his 5.25 ERA. But if you believe in regression to the mean (players have ups and downs but ultimately produce near their career averages), Gallardo, who has a lifetime 3.75 ERA, should turn a corner soon.
Moreover, he’s always pitched well against bad teams. His career numbers against clubs with winning percentages under .500 (like the Marlins) is 47-17 with a 3.28 ERA. Against winners he’s 26-31 with a 4.30 ERA. This situation will favor Gallardo. Take the Brewers at 1.80.
Best Bet: Back the Milwaukee Brewers against the Miami Marlins at 1.80
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