In a battle of last-place teams, the hometown Milwaukee Brewers will best the visiting Miami Marlins on Saturday. Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo suffered through a poor first half, but the Marlins line-up is just the tonic the former All Star needs to get back on track. While Gallardo’s overall ERA is a miserable 4.83, he really dominates weak clubs. In seven starts this season against teams with winning percentages below .500, Gallardo is 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA. Not surprisingly, when he faced the Marlins on 10 June he dominated, going eight scoreless innings. He allowed just four hits and one walk while striking out four batters in that one. Overall, in 58 career plate appearances, players on the Miami roster have a .127 batting average against Gallardo.
His opposing pitcher, Nate Eovaldi, is an up-and-coming young player – as illustrated by his nifty 2.93 ERA so far this season. That said, he scuffled a bit going into the All-Star break. His ERA in his past two games is a less impressive 4.26. Go with the Brewers at 1.61 to win.
Home-road splits are the key statistic when looking at the San Diego Padres on the road versus the St. Louis Cardinals. Lance Lynn is a different pitcher at home than on the road. At Busch Stadium, Lynn is 7-0 in 2013 with a 2.44 ERA; everywhere else he’s 4-4 with a 5.59 ERA. Padres pitcher Edinson Volquez has been terrible anywhere he’s pitched this season (he has a 5.74 ERA). That said, even if he was to recapture some form, it probably won’t happen on the road. Last year Volquez had a 2.95 ERA at Petco Park and a 5.60 ERA in away games.
Another issue: two key Cardinal hitters have owned Volquez throughout their career. Matt Holliday has a .400 lifetime batting average with two home runs in 20 at-bats and Carlos Beltran also owns a .400 batting average in 15 at-bats against Volquez. Look for a Cardinals’ victory at 1.48.