Brewers v Padres
After a walk-off extra-inning win on Thursday, the Milwaukee Brewers should capture another one on Friday when the San Diego Padres come to town. Brewers’ starter Shawn Marcum seems to have made some nice adjustments since getting shelled for six runs by the San Francisco Giants on May 22. In his last two outings he’s 2-0 with a 1.29 ERA. He pitched into the seventh inning in both appearances and allowed six hits or less in each. The Padres’ Edinson Volquez has a respectable3.42 ERA in 2012, but much of that success has occurred at home in pitcher-friendly Petco Park (his ERA at home is 3.17 in eight starts compared to 3.97 in four starts on the road). His lifetime ERA at Milwaukee’s Miller Park: 4.91. Trust in Milwaukee at 1.60 to take the contest from the Padres at 2.35.
Orioles v Phillies
There’s a good opportunity to bet on runs when the Philadelphia Phillies visit the Baltimore Orioles. Offensively, there’s a lot that’s average in this contest: the stadium, Camden Yards, is ranked fifteenth out of thirty in terms of run production and both the Orioles and the Phillies are right near their respective league averages in scoring. But, in this case, each lineup will relish the fact they’re facing a pitcher who is struggling. Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton started the year with a 4-2 record and a strong 2.81 ERA, but in his last four outings, he sports a 10.98 ERA and has given up ten home runs. Baltimore’s Jake Arrieta has been almost as bad recently. In his most recent six starts he’s 0-5 with a 7.96 ERA. Whereas typically these lineups might be so-so, both starters have the ability (or current lack of) to make them look good. Take over 9.00 runs at 1.90 as the likelihood of the under at 1.90 coming in is unlikely.