Brewers 1.81 v Reds 2.00
With no draws in baseball, something will have to give when the Cincinnati Reds’ Johnny Cueto puts his perfect 4-0 record on the line at Milwaukee Wednesday against Zack Greinke, whose team is 20-0 lifetime in games Greinke has started at Miller Park. Luckily for us we can sidestep that issue and look at under 7.0 runs as a good buy at 1.75 (compared to the over at 2.08). Cueto has been nearly unhittable this year sporting a 1.31 ERA and, while Greinke’s overall ERA has been a pedestrian 4.11, he’s been far more masterful at home, holding opponents there to an impressive 1.80 ERA (his ERA on the road: 7.20). Don’t get me wrong, these are two okay offences (they rank just below the league average in runs scored), but the pitching should reign on this occasion.
Yankees 1.75 v Rays 2.08
It’s always tough to bet against the Yankees when they’re at home. Historically, they’ve been great at Yankee Stadium (both the old and the new one), but this year, they’ve been pretty average there – just 7-6 at home versus 8-7 on the road through Sunday. They have a tough opponent in the Tampa Bay Rays in this one. The Rays starter Jeff Niemann is a lifetime 3-0 with a 3.10 ERA in five starts against New York. The Rays lineup has also been quite good. While they haven’t out-scored the Yankees, they’ve come close. The Yankees are third in the American League with 5.04 runs per game; the Rays are sixth with 4.59. That potency should be enough for Tampa Bay as the Yankees give David Phelps the pitching assignment. In his first start of the season, Phelps gave up two runs in four innings to a lesser Royals lineup. With the Yankees bullpen thinned due to Mariano Rivera’s season-ending injury, a short start by Phelps again would not be good. Look for the Rays – on at 2.08 – to take this one on the road against the Yankees, who could be had for 1.75.