The St. Louis Cardinals are well-placed to take advantage of Matt Cain’s recent funk on Monday. The San Francisco Giants starter appears to be showing some fatigue: in his past seven outings he’s won just one game. Compared to a run of eight straight wins from mid-May to mid-June, Cain is now looking mortal.
Sadly for Giants fans, he has to face Lance Lynn, who is proving to be more durable than may experts predicted. In the midst of his first season as a Major League starter, Lynn hasn’t wilted in the second half. Instead, minus one bad outing, he’s given up just three runs in his other 25 innings since the All Star Break. Pitching at home should further bolster Lynn’s confidence in this one: he has a 2.79 ERA at Busch Stadium compared to a 3.78 ERA on the road. The Cardinals are the pick at 1.85 not the Giants at 1.95.
Home field advantage will help Milwaukee Brewers starter Yovani Gallardo find success against the Cincinnati Reds. Gallardo has thown well at Miller Park in 2012, going 5-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 75 innings. That record includes a home win against the Reds on May 8 in which he looked particularly good, giving up just four hits and two runs, while striking out eight in six innings.
Reds pitcher Bronson Arroyo is off to a slow second-half start. After posting a 3.73 ERA before the All Star Break, he’s become far more hittable, registering a 4.57 ERA. “I didn’t have a whole lot,” admitted Arroyo after his last start. Go with Gallardo and the Brewers at 1.70. Pass on Cincinnati at 2.15.