Home run (Safe bet)
Go with the Chicago White Sox, on at 1.50, to win at home versus the Seattle Mariners.
Even though the Mariners are the better team here, when Chris Sale gets the start for the White Sox, as he does in this Friday tilt, you’ve got to go with him. He’s been excellent all season as evidenced by his 7-1 record and 2.30 ERA. Moreover, he throws particularly well at U.S. Cellular Field (5-1 with a 2.15 ERA).
Sale will also benefit from the fact that the Mariners have a lower OPS (that’s on percentage plus slugging percentage and it’s a big indicator of hitting success) against left-handers than right-handers. Consider that is Seattle’s performance against all lefties. Sale is an elite left-hander which should prove even more difficult for Mariners’ hitters.
Roenis Elias is starting for Seattle and is currently struggling. He was shelled for five runs in six innings against the Cleveland Indians in his last start. In his past five outings, he has a 4.99 ERA. This isn’t the best environment for Elias to rebound. He’ll square off against a Chicago club that is better offensively (.729 OPS) at home than they are on the road (.707 OPS).
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
In Oakland, look for the A’s and Toronto Blue Jays to score fewer than 8.5 runs; take it at 1.82.
I like this pitching matchup. On the one hand you have Marcus Stroman for the Blue Jays who has developed into a frontline pitcher. In his past two starts, the right-hander has put up a 1.84 ERA. Beyond that, he has been very consistent since entering the pitching rotation on May 31. In five of his six outings, he’s thrown a quality start (six innings or more pitched; three runs or less allowed).
Then there’s the A’s starter Tommy Milone. He doesn’t have the ceiling Stroman possesses, but he is an ace when he gets the opportunity to throw at home at O.Co Coliseum. This year he’s 3-0 with a 3.12 ERA there. That’s in line with his work at Oakland’s venue over his career. In 36 lifetime appearances he has a 3.19 ERA (compared to a 4.52 ERA on the road).