The Cincinnati Reds are well-positioned for a home win against the Chicago Cubs on Monday.
The Reds’ pitcher Bronson Arroyo brings a number of positive factors to the table in this game. The first is that he’s been masterful against the Cubs this year. He’s 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA. This is nothing new for Arroyo. Cumulatively against Chicago hitters, the pitcher has faced them 133 times and held those batters to a .189 batting average. Secondly, Arroyo is much better at home than on the road. He has a 9-3 record and a 3.16 ERA at home (versus a 4-7 win-loss record and a 4.37 ERA in away games).
Cubs’ pitcher Edwin Jackson doesn’t have the same positive track record to fall back on. He has a 7.20 ERA in one start against the Reds this season. Plus, he pitches terribly on the road (5.27 ERA). It’s also worth noting that he hasn’t won a game since July. Opt for the Reds at 1.51.
A low scoring game is likely when the Detroit Tigers visit the Chicago White Sox. Historically, a good hitters’ park, U.S. Cellular Field has simply been average this season (fourteenth out of thirty teams in runs scored, according to ESPN’s MLB Park Factors). With the stars on the pitcher’s mound for this game, scoring is likely to be all the more depressed.
Chris Sale may have a lowly 10-12 record for the tepid White Sox, but his 2.97 ERA is more reflective of just how well he’s pitched this year. When he’s at home, he’s even tougher, posting a 2.55 ERA to date. Detroit is the American League’s second-best run-scoring team, but Sale has pretty much owned them throughout his career, keeping their hitters to a .225 batting average in 163 plate appearances.
Tigers’ starter Max Scherzer has been Sale’s equal – if not better – this season. He is 19-2 with a 2.88 ERA. Interestingly, he’s been his best on the road, where he’s tallied a 2.23 ERA. White Sox hitters have been quite inept against Scherzer. Lifetime, they have a .209 batting average in 229 plate appearance. The critical mass of facts suggests this game will not be highlighted by hitters. Go for under 7 runs at 1.91.
Back the Cincinnati Reds to beat the Chicago Cubs at 1.51.
Back under 7 runs in Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox at 1.91.