Cubs v Phillies
Runs will be hard to come by when the Philadelphia Phillies travel to Chicago to clash with the Cubs on Wednesday. Both starting pitchers have been strong this season. Philadelphia’s Vance Worley has a 3.07 ERA, while Chicago’s Matt Garza has an even more impressive 2.56 ERA. Neither lineup is above the National League average in runs scored. The Phillies are tenth out of sixteen teams and the Cubs are fourteenth. As for Wrigley Field, while it may become more offensive-oriented later in the season, it has been a pitcher’s paradise so far in 2012. In terms of runs scored it is ranked twenty-seventh out of thirty ballparks throughout the Major League. The critical mass of all these factors points to taking under 7.5 runs at 1.75 instead of the over at 2.08.
Mets v Reds
The New York Mets’ Johan Santana is well-positioned to contribute another stellar home performance when his club hosts the Cincinnati Reds. The lefty is 1-1 1.90 ERA over four starts at Citi Field this year (compared with 0-1 with a 4.73 ERA on the road). While the Reds have fared better against lefties, their offence has not been stellar in away games where their batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage have all been lower than at home. New York also benefits from facing pitcher Mike Leake. The right-hander is 0-5 with a 7.11 and there was nothing in his most recent performance to suggest he’s on the cusp of breaking out of a season-long slump. In that outing he gave up six runs on seven hits in 3 2/3 innings. Go with the Mets at 1.68 and pass on the Reds at 2.18.