Home run (safe bet)
Look for the Colorado Rockies - 1.81 - to prevail at home against the San Francisco Giants.
The Giants might be ahead of the Rockies in the National League West standings, but when teams come to Denver, disregard overall records. Coors Field can often be a graveyard for pitchers. So while San Francisco pitcher Tim Hudson owns a 4-2 record and a 2.09 ERA, it doesn’t really matter. All you need to look at is in six starts in Colorado, he’s 0-2 with a 7.41 ERA.
In contrast, Rockies’ starter Jorge De La Rosa has always found a way to win at home. In 70 career appearances there, De La Rosa’s ERA is a mediocre 4.13 over but he has a fantastic 38-12 record. In other words, he knows how to navigate the offensive haven that is Coors Field.
Through in the fact that Colorado recently got back stars Michael Cuddyer and Wilin Rosario off the disabled list and the Rockies’ lineup should be firing on all cylinders.
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
Take under 7 runs at 1.85 when the Oakland A’s visit the Tampa Bay Rays.
This Thursday contest features two top-notch pitchers. This will be Rays’ pitcher Alex Cobb’s first start since coming off the disabled list with an oblique strain. Normally, that would cause some concern, but he threw so well before the injury (he’s sitting on a 15-inning scoreless streak) and he looked good in his one minor league rehab start (five innings pitched, three hits, no runs or walks and nine strikeouts). In addition, he has a good history versus A’s hitters. In 94 plate appearances, Oakland batters possess a limp .200 batting average (and .289 slugging percentage).
A’s starter Sonny Gray should also do the business. He’s a developing ace, posting a 5-1 record and 2.10 ERA through his first nine starts. In particular, he’s been sharp on the road. In away games, he’s 3-0 with a 1.29 ERA in four starts. Though the sample size is much smaller, Gray has done well in his brief encounters with Tampa Bay hitters. In 20 plate appearances, those batters have a .211 batting average and zero extra-base hits.