MLB Betting: Dodgers to edge Braves and take series lead

For the Los Angeles Dodgers, a return to Dodger Stadium Sunday for game three of their National League Division Series will propel them to victory against the Atlanta Braves.

Generally speaking, these are two teams that are very impacted by home-road splits. The Dodgers posted a solid 47-34 home record (.580 winning percentage) this year. But, more telling, were how much the Braves struggled on the road in 2013 – they had a losing record of 40-41 in away games. In short, the Braves hitting completely fell apart when they weren’t at Turner Field. They batted a paltry .238 in locales anywhere but Atlanta (in contrast they hit .260 at home).

The Dodgers’ starting pitcher won’t make it any easier on the Braves lineup in this one. Overall, Hyun-jin Ryu posted a solid 14-8 record with a 3.00 ERA. That said, at home he was a real ace, going 7-4 with a 2.32 ERA. Ryu also has a good recent track record (2.88 ERA in his past four starts) and threw very well against the Braves in his two outings against them (2.13 ERA; 11 strikeouts in 12 2/3 innings pitched).

The Braves choice to pitch, Julio Teheran, also put up strong overall numbers (14-8 with a 3.20 ERA), but just under the surface are some troubling stats.

He struggled a bit down the home stretch (4.44 ERA in his final four starts of the regular season) and didn’t pitch as well in away games (3.38 ERA) as home matches (3.04). Admittedly, that home-road split isn’t dire, but this will be Teheran’s first time appearance at Dodger Stadium and under the conditions (a large, hostile crowd), he may have particular difficulty.

Best bet: Opt for the Dodgers, who are on in this contest at 1.65, to capture the win.