Low scoring is likely when the San Diego Padres visit the San Francisco Giants at AT&T Park. Giants hurler Madison Bumgarner has been an ace in his home stadium: he has a 7-1 record with a 1.81 ERA in eight starts (on the road he’s a mere mortal - 4-5 with a 4.24 ERA in 11 starts).
The Padres’ Edinson Volquez should make it tough on Bumgarner. Volquez is on a roll: over his past five appearances he’s 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA. Added factors in this pick: AT&T Park is the worst run-scoring locale in Major League Baseball and the Padres are the worst offensive team in terms of runs produced in the National League (the Giants are also below average). Take under 6.5 runs at 1.81 as strong pitching means the over (2.00) is a long shot.
Cliff Lee’s luck is going to change when he pitches for the Philadelphia Phillies at home against the Milwaukee Brewers. Although Lee has a 1-6 record, it’s not reflective of how well he’s pitched: he has a 3.72 ERA and appears to be getting better as the season goes on. In his past three starts he’s sporting a 2.05 ERA and looked particularly great in his last outing against the Los Angeles Dodgers, in which he yielded just two hits and one run in eight innings of work.
For the Brewers, the often streaky Zack Greinke is in a funk. His ERA in July in 9.00 and, recognising that Greinke’s head space is a bit off, the Brewers skipped him when his rotation spot came up most recently. If Greinke were pitching at home, I could see a bounce-back performance here, but he’s on the road where he tends to lose focus (he has a 4.41 ERA away and a 2.56 ERA at home). Pick Lee and the Phillies at 1.67 to prevail over Greinke and the Brewers at 2.20.