Expect a run fest when the San Francisco Giants visit the Milwaukee Brewers on Tuesday.
How can I make such a prediction when one of the starting pitchers has a 0.00 ERA through two starts? Two reasons: regression to the mean and road start.
The pitcher in question in Barry Zito, who has a clean sheet in fourteen innings thrown. No matter how he threw in the 2012 post-season, Zito is simply not that good to sustain those sort of performances.
Neither his velocity nor his pitch selection has changed enough this year to suggest he’s an improved pitcher from the guy who had a 4.15 ERA last season.
Moreover, he’s never been as good on the road as at home in San Francisco. In fact, Miller Park was the site of one of his worse debacles last season, when he gave up eight runs in three innings pitched on May 23.
The Brewers starter Wily Peralta has a blistering fastball, but suffers from control issues. Against a Giants lineup that above the league average in both walks and runs scored per game, that’s not a good sign. Pick over 8.5 runs at 1.91.
The New York Mets have been an early surprise package in 2013, but look for their momentum to be slowed when they travel to Colorado to take on the Rockies.
New York has thrived thanks in large part to their bats. They have been the most prolific run scoring team through the season’s first couple of weeks. But there has been a big split between when they’ve faced right-handed pitchers and when they’ve matched-up against lefties.
Versus righties, the Mets are hitting a robust .285 with a .384 on base percentage. Against left-handers, it’s been a struggle: a .248 batting average and a .282 on base percentage.
In this game, the Mets will face the left-handed pitcher Jeff Francis. While Coors Field can be a minefield for any pitcher, Francis looked good in his only starter there thus far (six innings pitched; one run allowed).
The Rockies also swing the bat really well at home – in three games they have a .309 batting average. With lightweight starter Aaron Laffey on the mound – he’s only had an ERA under 4.00 once in his seven-year career – Colorado (on at 1.68) should prevail against the Mets (2.20).
Best Bet: Back over 8.5 runs in the Milwaukee Brewers v San Francisco Giants game at 1.91
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