Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Mark Buehrle is going to come good at home against his old team, the Chicago White Sox, on Monday. Buehrle has been roughed up in his first two starts and brings a 10.24 ERA into this match-up. But the veteran pitcher, who has registered an ERA below 4.00 in five of his past six seasons, rarely struggles for extended periods. In 2012, for example, he only suffered through three straight non-quality starts once all year (a quality start is throwing six-plus innings and allowing three or fewer runs). That’s a pretty good record considering he made thirty-one appearances. The upshot is that it’s unlikely he’ll falter for a third straight time here – especially considering he’s pitching against the White Sox, which is a team he knows well, having pitched for the club between 2000 and 2011.
Chicago starter Gavin Floyd isn’t as reliable as Buehrle. He’s put up an ERA over 4.00 in each of his last five seasons and has a 5.56 ERA so far this year. He also has a bad track record against Toronto: lifetime, he’s 2-5 with a 5.64 ERA. He’s been particularly against the Blue Jays in Toronto: Floyd is 1-3 with a 7.00 ERA in eighteen innings of work there. Go with Buehrle and the Jays at 1.68.
If you’re looking for a safe bet, pick the Washington Nationals to win on the road against Miami. The Marlins' gutted line-up has showed very little punch in 2013. They are by far and away the National League’s worst hitting team; in fact, they’re the only club in the circuit to be averaging less than two runs a game. Don’t expect them to get a break in this contest against Nationals starter Jordan Zimmermann, who is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA. Zimmermann is comfortable pitching in South Beach, as evidenced by his 3.00 ERA in twelve innings of work at Marlins Park in 2012. While the Marlins starter, Wade LeBlanc, is a solid pitcher, his team won’t be able to outscore the Nats. The odds aren’t huge – the Nationals are on at 1.53 – but this is a very safe bet.