MLB Betting: LA and San Fran will dodge the runs

Prepare for a low scoring affair on Friday when the San Francisco Giants visit the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

No venue in baseball has been harder to score runs at than Dodger Stadium this year, according to ESPN’s Ballpark Factors. This game features two excellent pitchers so the likelihood of few runs is particularly great. 

The Giants send Madison Bumgarner to the pitcher’s mound. Bumgarner has registered an 11-9 record and a 2.82 ERA in 2013. But he’s been particularly sharp at Dodger Stadium over his career. In seven lifetime appearances there, the left-hander is 4-2 with a 1.70 ERA. 

His biggest stumbling block for victory in this contest is that he must duel with Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw. The 2011 Cy Young Award winner has been excellent this year. He currently leads the National League with a 1.92 ERA and Kershaw’s been even better at preventing runs at home, where his ERA dips to 1.56. Look for the run total to fall below 6 runs and take that proposition at 1.78.

A hungry Tampa Bay Rays team will get back on a winning track against the Minnesota Twins. 

The Rays enter this clash having lost a three-game series versus the Boston Red Sox. That said they have everything to play for as they cling (ever so barely) to a Wild Card spot. That motivation will help them against a Twins team that has just been playing out the season for some time. 

Another factor that will assist the Rays here is that Chris Archer will be pitching for them. Archer has been really solid for the Rays, posting a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts. In his ten starts against teams with winning percentages under .500, Archer has been a tick better, posting a 3.06 ERA. In fact, in his one start against the Twins, he dominated, going six innings without allowing an earned run. 

His pitching opposition, Kevin Correia, scuffled in his one start against the Rays earlier this year (5 1/3 innings; three runs allowed). Beyond that, historically, Rays’ hitters have swung the bat well against Correia. In 122 plate appearances, they own a .271 batting average and a strong .495 slugging percentage. Go with Tampa Bay at 1.58.

Best Bet

Back under 6 runs between the San Francisco Giants and the LA Dodgers

Follow Josh Chetwynd's MLB betting tips every day