Home run (Safe bet)
Take the San Diego Padres, on at 1.61, to win at home versus the Arizona Diamondbacks.
I’m keying on Tyson Ross for this Monday match-up. The Padres’ pitcher is just so good at home. In 94 2/3 innings at Petco Park, he has a 1.90 ERA and has held opposing hitters to a meagre .191 batting average. He’s taken on Arizona at home twice this season and has been excellent in both games. Combined he’s threw 14 innings versus the D-Back in San Diego in those contests and yielded just two earned runs.
Arizona starter Trevor Cahill’s year has been comprehensively forgettable. In twenty-seven appearances he has a 4.98 ERA. While he’s been better in the second half of the season compared to the first, he still has a 4.37 ERA to show for his 45 1/3 innings of work since the All-Star break. An even more recent look at his work is not promising. In his past three starts, he’s yielded twelve runs in 13 2/3 inning pitched.
Considering the Padres went into the end of this past weekend with a four-game winning streak and a 6-4 record in their past ten, while the Diamondbacks were scuffling with a 3-7 record over the same stretch, it’s clear one team is better positioned for the win here.
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
In Miami, look for the Marlins and the New York Mets to collaborate for fewer than 7 runs; take under that total at 1.87.
Henderson Alvarez is in his best environs for this game. The Marlins starter has struggled as of late (2-1 with a 4.66 ERA in his past three starts), but all those problems appear to melt away when he gets on the pitcher’s mound at Marlins Park. In twelve appearances at home, he’s a nearly impeccable 6-2 with a 1.46 ERA. Getting the Mets at home further his chances for success. In four previous starts against New York’s National League club, he’s 2-1 with a 2.73 ERA.
Obviously, the Mets’ starting pitcher will also have to do his part, and Zack Wheeler is certainly talented enough to fulfill his obligations. He owns a 3.44 ERA, but has been even better over the last month, where his ERA has dipped to 2.81. With Marlins Park just a tad over league average in run production, according to ESPN’s MLB Park Factors, and neither club a dominating offensive force, this pitching duo can certainly do enough to keep the scoring down.