Mets v Phillies
Expect Cliff Lee to get his first win of the season when his Philadelphia Phillies visit the New York Mets. While the ace left-hander is 0-2, his win-loss record is more a reflection on hard luck than performance. His 2.82 ERA is the second-best among Phillies starters and he’s coming off a quality start against a tough St. Louis Cardinals lineup, in which he gave up three runs on eight hits in seven innings. He struck out seven in the contest. The Mets’ pitcher Dillon Gee also had a great start his last time out. He struck out nine, which is a career-high. That said he has a history of being hit hard by Philadelphia. In five career appearances he owns a 7.50 ERA. The Phillies, who are on at 1.65, have a losing record against New York this season, but this is one they should be able to come out of victorious. As for the Mets, pass on the 2.25 odds.
Dodgers v Brewers
When aces for the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers meet in LA, it’s the hometown club that will have the advantage. Both Milwaukee’s Yovani Gallardo and Los Angeles’ Clayton Kershaw have pitched well this season. As discussed in this column previously, Gallardo has been great when he hasn’t pitched against the St. Louis Cardinals (in two starts against the Cardinals so far he’s given up 14 earned runs; in his other nine starts he’s allowed 14 earned runs). Kershaw hasn’t found a worthy nemesis yet: he has a 1.97 ERA. Still, the difference-maker here will be Gallardo’s career-long difficulty against the Dodgers. His overall record against the Los Angeles team is 0-3 with a 6.54 ERA in five starts. In his one outing at Dodger Stadium, he was particularly bad: he gave up nine runs in 5 1/3 innings pitched. While Kershaw hasn’t necessarily been his best against the Brewers (he has a 4.26 lifetime ERA), he should have enough to carry the Dodgers at 1.57 over the Brewers at 2.40.