Home run (Safe bet)
Go with the Los Angeles Dodgers, on at 1.50, to win at home versus the St. Louis Cardinals.
The bet in this Sunday clash is almost solely on the Dodgers’ starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw. Quite simply, the man is nearly unhittable at the moment. In fact, he was literally unhittable on June 18 when he threw a no-hitter versus the Colorado Rockies. If you look at his performance over the past month, it’s been dominating. His given up just four runs in his past five starts. That run spans 37 innings of work.
It’s also important to note, that the Dodgers have won each of Kershaw’s past five starts. So not only is the starter throwing well, but the team is also going out with confidence each time he takes the pitcher’s mound. With Kershaw facing a St. Louis lineup that ranks thirteenth out of fifteen in National League run scoring, he should be primed to keep the momentum going.
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
Go with the Minnesota Twins at 2.05 to win on the road at the Texas Rangers.
Take advantage of Colby Lewis's tremendous struggles. Not only has the Rangers’ starter has not found his groove this season, but things have also gone from bad to worse as of late. His overall ERA is 5.94, but in his past four starts that stat has skyrocketed to 7.06. His big problem has been pitching at home this season. At Globe Life Park in Arlington (where he’ll throw in this game), Lewis is 1-4 with a 7.12 ERA. On the road, his numbers are a more palatable 4-1 with a 4.64 ERA.
Very quietly, Twins starter Kyle Gibson has been a stalwart performer for his club this season. He has a 6-6 record and a 3.92 ERA, but he’s gotten better as the season has progressed. Before a bomb of an outing last time out (2 innings pitched; seven runs allowed against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim), he’d delivered 22 straight innings of scoreless work. The bet here is that streak is more reflective of his skill than the recent hiccup. Considering the Rangers are below league average (and below the Twins) in run scoring this year, it’s a reasonable wager.