MLB betting: Nationals to make home advantage count versus the Brewers

The Cincinnati Reds have a really favorable matchup on Monday at home against the San Francisco Giants.

Reds starter Bronson Arroyo is a top-notch pitcher when pitching at his club’s stadium. In fact, he has very telling home-road splits. At Great American Ball Park he’s 5-1 with a 2.50 ERA in 2013; everywhere else Arroyo is 1-5 with a 5.70 ERA.

He’s also facing the Giants at a really favorable moment in time. The defending World Series champs have been scuffling. After solid win-loss percentages in April and May, they were well under a .500 winning percentage in June. In particular, they’ve been woeful on the road, where they have a winning percentage below .400 for the season.

This game is near the end of a 10-game road trip for San Francisco, so expect the Giants to be weary. One of San Francisco’s big problems is that for the first time in a number of years, their pitching rotation hasn’t been rock solid. This issue will be obvious in this contest, when Mike Kickham takes the pitcher’s mound for the Giants. He’s had two Major League starts this season and owns a rotten 10.57 ERA in 7 2/3 innings pitched. Go with the Reds at 1.55.

The Washington Nationals will get a much needed home victory against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have struggled this season in general, but they just haven’t found any footing on the road. The club’s winning percentage away from Milwaukee is hovering around .350. With their best hitter, Ryan Braun, on the disabled list with a thumb injury, the Brewers offence is limited.

In fact, going into Sunday, they’d only scored more than four runs in a game once in their past 12 contests. Odds are this will be another game where their run production will be low because Jordan Zimmermann is pitching for the Nationals. Zimmermann has been extremely good in 2013, registering an 11-3 record and a 2.28 ERA to date. But at home, he has been unstoppable. His record at Nationals Park: 8-0 with a 1.09 ERA. Washington is the way to go in this one

Best bet: Washington to win at 1.48