Historic numbers will dictate the results when the Atlanta Braves host the New York Mets on Monday.
Braves starter Tim Hudson has a solid track record against Mets hitters. Combined they’ve posted a weak .205 lifetime batting average and an equally limp .279 on base percentage against Hudson.
The Mets are a team Hudson has always been happy to see, as evidenced by his 16-10 record and respectable 3.61 ERA. Finally, pitching at Turner Field is a joy for Hudson, who is a dominating 61-32 there with a 3.18 ERA there.
As for the Mets’ pitching choice, Dillon Gee hasn’t dominated the Braves line-up. While Atlanta’s .267 combined batting average against Gee isn’t incredibly impressive, the hitters’ .351 on base percentage and .436 slugging percentage are both strong.
In addition, Gee has had major road woes in 2013. His ERA away from Citi Field is a bloated 6.50. The veteran Hudson will prevail, so take Atlanta at 1.48.
A struggling Barry Zito will lead to a poor result for the San Francisco Giants at home against the San Diego Padres.
Zito has always been strong at home and the start of 2013 was no different. He didn’t give up a single run in his first three starts at AT&T Park (and in his fourth and fifth home appearances he allowed just two runs in twelve innings). But the magic is wearing off.
He was unable to notch a quality start (six innings or more pitched; three runs or less allowed) in two of his last three home outings. While one of Zito’s early AT&T scoreless gems was against the Padres, San Diego is a much better hitting team now compared to back in April. Hitters like Carlos Quentin and Yonder Alonso have all picked up their games offensively since then.
Also, overall, the Padres have done well against left-handed starters like Zito. They have a .271 batting average and .414 slugging percentage against lefties (versus righties it’s .239 and .376, respectively).
San Diego also benefits from having under-appreciated starter Andrew Cashner pitching. Cashner is 5-3 with a 3.52 ERA.
He’s look particularly sturdy in his past two outings when he’s gone a total of fifteen innings and has allowed just thirteen hits and five runs. Go with San Diego at 2.05 in this one.
Best Bet: Back the San Diego Padres at 2.05 against the San Francisco Giants
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