Home run (Safe bet)
In Houston, look for the Astros and the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim to engage in a pitchers’ duel; take under 8 runs at 1.85
While the Angels may be ranked third in the American League in run production this season and the Astros are showing much improvement at the plate, this game will be dominated by the pitchers.
Collin McHugh has been one of the Astros’ big surprises in 2014. The pitcher, who gets the start here, owns a 2.80 ERA over seven starts. He’s thrown a quality start (six innings or more pitched; three runs or fewer allowed) in five of those appearances. Most notable for this game is he faced the Angels in Anaheim on May 21 and threw really well. He went seven innings, giving up four hits, two walks and two runs, while striking out seven.
Like McHugh, C.J. Wilson has also be solid all season. He’s put up a 3.05 ERA and has a quality start in six of his last seven outings. He also has experience against his opponent. On April 7, he stymied the Astros, going eight innings, allowing four hits, one walk and one run, while striking out seven. In fact, his dominance over Houston extends even longer. In 97 career plate appearances, Astros hitters have a meagre .196 batting average versus Wilson.
Squeeze play (Gutsiest call)
Go with the Miami Marlins, on at 1.95, to prevail at home against the Tampa Bay Rays.
Admittedly, neither of these two clubs have been on form lately. Miami is 8-12 in its last twenty games, and the Ray are 7-13 over the same stretch. But I like the Marlins in this Tuesday clash based on how these two clubs play under the circumstances of this contest. Miami ranks second in the National League in home performance (20-11), while Tampa Bay is second-to-last in the American League when it comes to away games (11-20).
Both pitchers in this matchup have been solid in 2014. That said the Rays’ Chris Archer has been more erratic (4.00 ERA) compared to the Marlins’ Henderson Alvarez (2.97 ERA). Again, home-road performances work very much in Miami’s favour here. Archer has a 4.72 ERA on the road and a 3.14 ERA at home so he’s not throwing in his best environs. Alvarez has a 1.85 ERA at Marlins Park and a 4.14 ERA anywhere else so he should be pitching with confidence.
Bet on MLB here.